Wanderers vs Penarol: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 26 April the Primera División Apertura brings Wanderers against Penarol. Kick-off: 23:00 WAT. In the table, Wanderers are 10th, lower half, on 16 points after 13 matches; Penarol are 5th (upper half) with 22.
Current form
Wanderers, last 5: LLDWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Albion FC, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.4 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Penarol, last 5: DLLDL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Juventud, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Wanderers 0.9 xG, Penarol 1.6 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Wanderers 17%, draw 27%, Penarol 56%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Wanderers 0–1 Penarol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Wanderers17%fair 5.90 · @5.50
Draw27%fair 3.75 · @3.50
Penarol56%fair 1.77 · @1.61
2.47Expected goals
0.86Wanderers xG
1.61Penarol xG
52%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–112%
0–211%
1–29%
0–08%
1–07%
From our goals model: Wanderers 0.9 – 1.6 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Wanderers
Penarol
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-1%
+24%
Goals conceded vs average
+10%
-29%
Our expected goals here
0.90
1.46
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win
56%
1.77
1.61
Double chance
Penarol or draw
83%
1.20
1.09
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
52%
1.93
1.95
Draw no bet
Penarol (draw no bet)
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Wanderers +1 (Asian handicap)
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
70%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Penarol to score first
60%
1.68
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol
33%
2.99
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
10.60
–
Recent results
Wanderers – last 5
LLDWL
25 Mar
@ Albion FC
1–2
L
14 Mar
@ Club Nacional
0–2
L
7 Mar
vs Deportivo Maldonado
0–0
D
1 Mar
@ Central Espanol
1–0
W
22 Feb
vs Atletico Torque
0–4
L
0.4Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Penarol – last 6
DLLDLW
21 Apr
vs Juventud
2–2
D
17 Apr
vs Platense
1–2
L
14 Apr
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–2
L
10 Apr
@ Santa Fe
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Racing Montevideo
1–2
L
26 Mar
@ Boston River
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Wanderers and Penarol.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Wanderers vs Penarol?
On our numbers Wanderers have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Penarol 56%.
How many goals will there be in Wanderers vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Wanderers vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Wanderers 0–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Wanderers vs Penarol?
Wanderers vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
