Cerro Largo 25%Draw 28%Racing Montevideo 47%Expected goals 0.93 – 1.35
75%
Betarazi pick
Racing Montevideo or draw
Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.25
8/10Rating
1.25Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultRacing Montevideo to win47% · @1.98
Double chanceRacing Montevideo or draw75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 11.55
Cerro Largo vs Racing Montevideo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:30 WAT, Sunday 26 April: Cerro Largo v Racing Montevideo in the Primera División Apertura, played at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla. In the table, Cerro Largo are 15th, in the drop zone, on 9 points after 13 matches; Racing Montevideo are 6th (upper half) with 19.
Current form
Cerro Largo, last 5: LDDLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Boston River, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Racing Montevideo, last 5: WDWLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Penarol, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Racing Montevideo, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.3 for Cerro Largo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cerro Largo 0.9 xG, Racing Montevideo 1.3 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cerro Largo 25%, draw 28%, Racing Montevideo 47%.
Lower-risk option: Racing Montevideo or draw (75%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Racing Montevideo or draw (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cerro Largo 0–1 Racing Montevideo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cerro Largo25%fair 3.97 · @3.80
Draw28%fair 3.59 · @3.10
Racing Montevideo47%fair 2.13 · @1.98
2.27Expected goals
0.93Cerro Largo xG
1.35Racing Montevideo xG
54%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–113%
0–010%
1–010%
0–29%
1–29%
From our goals model: Cerro Largo 0.9 – 1.3 Racing Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-22%
+9%
Goals conceded vs average
+5%
-12%
Our expected goals here
0.87
1.23
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Racing Montevideo to win
47%
2.13
1.98
Double chance
Racing Montevideo or draw
75%
1.34
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
54%
1.86
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Racing Montevideo (draw no bet)
65%
1.54
–
Asian handicap
Cerro Largo +1 (Asian handicap)
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
65%
1.53
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
60%
1.66
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
80%
1.25
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Racing Montevideo to score first
53%
1.88
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Racing Montevideo / FT Racing Montevideo
27%
3.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
11.55
–
Recent results
Cerro Largo – last 6
LDDLWW
20 Apr
@ Boston River
0–1
L
11 Apr
vs Cerro
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Albion FC
2–2
D
25 Mar
@ Club Nacional
0–3
L
20 Mar
vs Deportivo Maldonado
3–1
W
15 Mar
@ Central Espanol
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Racing Montevideo – last 6
WDWLWW
29 Mar
@ Penarol
2–1
W
26 Mar
vs Progreso
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Cerro
1–0
W
5 Mar
@ Boston River
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Albion FC
3–1
W
21 Feb
vs Danubio
4–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerro Largo and Racing Montevideo.
What is the prediction for Cerro Largo vs Racing Montevideo?
Our pick is Racing Montevideo or draw with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Cerro Largo vs Racing Montevideo?
On our numbers Cerro Largo have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Racing Montevideo 47%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro Largo vs Racing Montevideo?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro Largo vs Racing Montevideo?
Our predicted score is Cerro Largo 0–1 Racing Montevideo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Cerro Largo vs Racing Montevideo?
Cerro Largo vs Racing Montevideo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
