Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.06 – our chance 54% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultRodina Moskva to win ✓64% · @1.41
Double chanceRodina Moskva or draw ✓86% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.06
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.13
Rodina Moskva vs Chelyabinsk: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 8 May the First League brings Rodina Moskva against Chelyabinsk at Arena Khimki. Kick-off: 18:30 WAT.
Current form
Rodina Moskva, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Rotor Volgograd, away. 2.7 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Chelyabinsk, last 5: WLDLD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over FK Neftekhimik, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Rodina Moskva, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.8 for Chelyabinsk.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Rodina Moskva 2.0 xG, Chelyabinsk 0.9 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Rodina Moskva 64%, draw 22%, Chelyabinsk 14%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.06.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.06 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.24). Most likely score in line with that pick: Rodina Moskva 2–0 Chelyabinsk. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Rodina Moskva64%fair 1.56 · @1.41
Draw22%fair 4.54 · @4.30
Chelyabinsk14%fair 7.11 · @7.30
2.83Expected goals
1.95Rodina Moskva xG
0.88Chelyabinsk xG
54%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Rodina Moskva 2.0 – 0.9 Chelyabinsk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Rodina Moskva
Chelyabinsk
Attack vs First League average
+29%
+2%
Goals conceded vs average
-8%
+14%
Our expected goals here
2.17
1.09
Our own ratings from every First League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rodina Moskva to win✓
64%
1.56
1.41
Double chance
Rodina Moskva or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
2.06 ▲
Draw no bet
Rodina Moskva (draw no bet)✓
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Rodina Moskva -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.24
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
1.89
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.27
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.06
First team to score
Rodina Moskva to score first✓
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Rodina Moskva ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rodina Moskva / FT Rodina Moskva✓
40%
2.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.13
–
Recent results
Rodina Moskva – last 6
LWWWWD
22 Apr
@ Rotor Volgograd
0–2
L
13 Apr
@ Fakel
3–1
W
5 Apr
@ FK Sokol Saratov
3–1
W
29 Mar
vs Ural
3–1
W
23 Mar
vs Chayka
5–2
W
14 Mar
@ Ska-khabarovsk
2–2
D
2.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Chelyabinsk – last 6
WLDLDL
2 May
vs FK Neftekhimik
2–0
W
26 Apr
vs Ural
1–2
L
22 Apr
@ Arsenal Tula
0–0
D
17 Apr
@ Enisey
0–3
L
3 Apr
vs Chernomorets
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ Chayka
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rodina Moskva and Chelyabinsk.
What is the prediction for Rodina Moskva vs Chelyabinsk?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Rodina Moskva vs Chelyabinsk?
On our numbers Rodina Moskva have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Chelyabinsk 14%.
How many goals will there be in Rodina Moskva vs Chelyabinsk?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Rodina Moskva vs Chelyabinsk?
Our predicted score is Rodina Moskva 2–0 Chelyabinsk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Rodina Moskva vs Chelyabinsk?
Rodina Moskva vs Chelyabinsk (First League) kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Khimki.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Chayka0
Chernomorets2
Fakel0