Rosario Central v Independiente Prediction & Expected Goals (10 May) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultRosario Central to win48% · @2.25

Double chanceRosario Central or draw75% · @1.28

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @2.00

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · @1.18

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.91

Rosario Central vs Independiente: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Rosario Central welcome Independiente to Estadio Gigante de Arroyito for a Liga Profesional Argentina fixture on Sunday 10 May (19:00 WAT). In the table, Rosario Central are 2nd, among the top four, on 62 points after 32 matches; Independiente are 13th (upper half) with 47. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Rosario Central, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Libertad Asuncion, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Independiente, last 5: WDWLL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Defensa Y Justicia, at home. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Momentum favours Rosario Central, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.3 for Independiente.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Rosario Central 1.5 xG, Independiente 0.9 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Rosario Central 48%, draw 27%, Independiente 25%.
Lower-risk option: Rosario Central or draw (75%) at 1.28.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Rosario Central to win @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 48%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Rosario Central or draw (75%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Rosario Central 1–0 Independiente. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Rosario Central48%fair 2.10 · @2.25

Draw27%fair 3.65 · @2.88

Independiente25%fair 3.99 · @3.60

2.37Expected goals

1.51Rosario Central xG

0.85Independiente xG

53%Both score

40%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–014%

1–112%

2–011%

0–09%

2–19%

0–18%

From our goals model: Rosario Central 1.5 – 0.9 Independiente expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Rosario Central to win	48%	2.10	2.25 ▲
Double chance	Rosario Central or draw	75%	1.33	1.28
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	53%	1.90	2.00 ▲
Draw no bet	Rosario Central (draw no bet)	65%	1.53	–
Asian handicap	Independiente +1 (Asian handicap)	63%	1.58	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	66%	1.51	1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals	60%	1.67	1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	79%	1.26	1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals	90%	1.11	1.05
First team to score	Rosario Central to score first	58%	1.73	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time	45%	2.24	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Rosario Central / FT Rosario Central	32%	3.15	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1	9%	10.91	–

Rosario Central – last 6

WWWWWD

5 May	vs Libertad Asuncion	1–0	W
29 Apr	@ UCV	3–0	W
24 Apr	@ Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	2–1	W
20 Apr	vs Sarmiento Junin	2–1	W
15 Apr	@ Libertad Asuncion	1–0	W
9 Apr	vs Independiente del Valle	0–0	D

1.5Scored / game

0.3Conceded / game

33%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Independiente – last 6

WDWLLD

18 Apr	vs Defensa Y Justicia	3–1	W
11 Apr	@ Boca Juniors	1–1	D
27 Mar	vs Atenas	4–2	W
22 Mar	vs Talleres Cordoba	1–2	L
17 Mar	@ Instituto Cordoba	1–2	L
10 Mar	vs Union Santa Fe	4–4	D

2.3Scored / game

2.0Conceded / game

100%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	+12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	+13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	+6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	+4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	+4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	+3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	+4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11

Team

Pts

+12

+13

-3

-8

-5

Central Cordoba de Santiago

-10

Newells Old Boys

-12

Deportivo Riestra

-7

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Rosario Central vs Independiente?

Our pick is Rosario Central or draw with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.

Who will win Rosario Central vs Independiente?

On our numbers Rosario Central have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Independiente 25%.

How many goals will there be in Rosario Central vs Independiente?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Rosario Central vs Independiente?

Our predicted score is Rosario Central 1–0 Independiente, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Rosario Central vs Independiente?

Rosario Central vs Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Gigante de Arroyito.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Rosario Central v Independiente: numbers & prediction

Rosario Central