Value bet: Penarol to win @ 2.25 – our chance 48% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPenarol to win ✓48% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.00
Defensor Sporting vs Penarol: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Defensor Sporting welcome Penarol to Estadio Luis Franzini for a Primera División Apertura fixture on Sunday 24 May (22:30 WAT). In the table, Defensor Sporting are 13th, lower half, on 12 points after 13 matches; Penarol are 5th (upper half) with 22.
Current form
Defensor Sporting, last 5: LLDWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Central Espanol, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Penarol, last 5: DWDDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Corinthians, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (4 May 2026) it ended Penarol 1–1 Defensor Sporting.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Defensor Sporting 0.9 xG, Penarol 1.5 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Defensor Sporting 26%, draw 26%, Penarol 48%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Penarol to win @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 48%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Defensor Sporting 0–1 Penarol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Defensor Sporting26%fair 3.81 · @3.10
Draw26%fair 3.84 · @3.10
Penarol48%fair 2.10 · @2.25
2.38Expected goals
0.92Defensor Sporting xG
1.47Penarol xG
56%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–112%
0–210%
0–09%
1–29%
1–08%
From our goals model: Defensor Sporting 0.9 – 1.5 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-0%
+24%
Goals conceded vs average
+25%
-29%
Our expected goals here
0.90
1.65
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
On our numbers Defensor Sporting have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Penarol 48%.
How many goals will there be in Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Defensor Sporting 0–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Defensor Sporting vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Franzini.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
