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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Ethiopia v Malawi: numbers & prediction

Friendlies · World · Dire Dawa Stadium

Ethiopia

WWW
1–1
FT

Malawi

L
Ethiopia 45%Draw 23%Malawi 31% Expected goals 0.94 – 0.70
69%
Betarazi pick

Under 2.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.45 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.55Odds
1

Value bet: Ethiopia to win @ 2.45 – our chance 45% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultEthiopia to win ✗45% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.55
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗6% · fair 16.66

Ethiopia vs Malawi: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Malawi travel to face Ethiopia on Tuesday 9 June in the Friendlies, with Dire Dawa Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 16:00 WAT.

Current form

Ethiopia, last 3: WWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Malawi, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Head to head

When they last met (6 Jun 2026) it ended Ethiopia 1–0 Malawi.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Ethiopia 0.9 xG, Malawi 0.7 xG – a total near 1.6. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 69%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Ethiopia 45%, draw 23%, Malawi 31%.
  • GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.95.
  • Price worth noting: Ethiopia to win @2.45 – the bookmaker implies 41%, our ratings say 45%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (69%, odds 1.55 – longer than our fair 1.45, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ethiopia 0–0 Malawi. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Ethiopia45%fair 2.20 · @2.45
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @3.10
Malawi31%fair 3.18 · @2.75
1.64Expected goals
0.94Ethiopia xG
0.70Malawi xG
50%Both score
31%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–019%
1–018%
0–114%
1–113%
2–09%
2–16%

From our goals model: Ethiopia 0.9 – 0.7 Malawi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultEthiopia to win ✗45%2.202.45 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77%1.301.28
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓50%2.001.95
Draw no betEthiopia (draw no bet)59%1.69–
Asian handicapMalawi +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓60%1.66–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓57%1.761.44
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓69%1.451.55 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85%1.181.18
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓97%1.03–
First team to scoreEthiopia to score first46%2.16–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓55%1.82–
Half-time / full-timeHT Draw / FT Draw ✓27%3.74–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗6%16.66–

Recent results

Ethiopia – last 3

WWW
6 Junvs Malawi1–0W
31 Marvs Sao Tome and Principe1–0W
27 Mar@ Sao Tome and Principe3–0W
1.7Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Malawi – last 1

L
6 Jun@ Ethiopia0–1L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5

Head to head

6 Jun 2026Ethiopia v Malawi1–0
Ethiopia vs Malawi head-to-head page →

More Friendlies predictions

League hub
– Vanuatu Fiji 160%1.60X22%4.20218%4.75 2.0–1.0xG 1Vanuatu to win 60%@1.60
FT Philippines5 Myanmar1 158%1.50X23%3.95219%5.75 2.5–1.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 83%@1.25 ✓
FT China0 Thailand0 138%1.95X23%3.30239%3.45 1.2–1.8xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.30 ✗
FT Cambodia2 Hong Kong0 129%3.20X26%3.30245%2.05 1.2–1.5xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.28 ✓
– Oman Kuwait 156%1.85X22%3.42222%4.05 2.0–1.2xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.37
FT Indonesia1 Mozambique0 163%1.45X18%4.40219%5.25 2.3–1.2xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 81%@1.22 ✗
– Bahrain Syria 146%2.35X23%3.10231%2.88 1.6–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 73%@1.40
FT Kyrgyzstan0 Palestine0 139%2.75X26%2.95235%2.50 1.3–1.2xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 68%@1.44 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Ethiopia vs Malawi?

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.

Who will win Ethiopia vs Malawi?

On our numbers Ethiopia have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Malawi 31%.

How many goals will there be in Ethiopia vs Malawi?

We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Ethiopia vs Malawi?

Our predicted score is Ethiopia 0–0 Malawi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.

When is Ethiopia vs Malawi?

Ethiopia vs Malawi (Friendlies) kicks off on Tuesday 9 June 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Dire Dawa Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.