Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
Picks by market
ResultNoroeste to win ✓64% · @1.62
Double chanceNoroeste or draw ✓87% · fair 1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗59% · fair 1.69
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.84
Noroeste vs Comercial: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Comercial travel to face Noroeste on Saturday 22 August in the Copa Paulista, with Estadio Alfredo de Castilho the venue – the ball rolls at 19:00 WAT.
Current form
Noroeste, last 5: DWDDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with União São João, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Comercial, last 5: LDLWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to XV de Piracicaba, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Comercial, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.0 for Noroeste.
Head to head
When they last met (18 Jul 2026) it ended Comercial 2–0 Noroeste.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Noroeste 1.7 xG, Comercial 0.6 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 41%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Noroeste 64%, draw 23%, Comercial 13%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Noroeste to win (64%, odds 1.62 – longer than our fair 1.56, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Noroeste 1–0 Comercial. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Noroeste64%fair 1.56 · @1.62
Draw23%fair 4.40 · @3.60
Comercial13%fair 7.49 · @4.50
2.28Expected goals
1.68Noroeste xG
0.60Comercial xG
41%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–014%
1–110%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Noroeste 1.7 – 0.6 Comercial expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Noroeste to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Noroeste vs Comercial?
On our numbers Noroeste have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Comercial 13%.
How many goals will there be in Noroeste vs Comercial?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Noroeste vs Comercial?
Our predicted score is Noroeste 1–0 Comercial, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Noroeste vs Comercial?
Noroeste vs Comercial (Copa Paulista) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alfredo de Castilho.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Grêmio Prudente1
Marília0
Juventus5
Oeste0
Linense2
Bandeirante SP0
XV de Piracicaba1
União São João1
Santo André1
EC São Bernardo0