Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 50% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPenarol to win ✓59% · @1.52
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓83% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.78
Cerro vs Penarol: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:00 WAT, Sunday 7 June: Cerro v Penarol in the Primera División Apertura. In the table, Cerro are 9th, lower half, on 18 points after 13 matches; Penarol are 5th (upper half) with 22.
Current form
Cerro, last 5: LWLLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Cerro Largo, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Penarol, last 5: LWDWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Santa Fe, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Penarol, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.8 for Cerro.
Head to head
When they last met (21 Mar 2026) it ended Penarol 3–1 Cerro.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cerro 0.8 xG, Penarol 1.6 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cerro 17%, draw 24%, Penarol 59%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 50%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cerro 0–1 Penarol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cerro17%fair 5.94 · @6.25
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.65
Penarol59%fair 1.70 · @1.52
2.40Expected goals
0.78Cerro xG
1.62Penarol xG
50%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–115%
0–212%
1–111%
1–29%
0–09%
1–07%
From our goals model: Cerro 0.8 – 1.6 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Cerro
Penarol
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-9%
+24%
Goals conceded vs average
+20%
-29%
Our expected goals here
0.82
1.59
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Cerro vs Penarol?
On our numbers Cerro have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Penarol 59%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Cerro 0–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Cerro vs Penarol?
Cerro vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 7 June 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
