Kauno Žalgiris 62%Draw 21%Suduva Marijampole 17%Expected goals 1.76 – 0.78
83%
Betarazi pick
Kauno Žalgiris or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Kauno Žalgiris to win @ 1.91 – our chance 62% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultKauno Žalgiris to win ✓62% · @1.91
Double chanceKauno Žalgiris or draw ✓83% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.49
Kauno Žalgiris vs Suduva Marijampole: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Suduva Marijampole travel to face Kauno Žalgiris on Wednesday 9 September in the A Lyga – the ball rolls at 16:45 WAT. In the table, Kauno Žalgiris are 1st, leading the league, on 58 points after 32 matches; Suduva Marijampole are 2nd (among the top four) with 56. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Kauno Žalgiris, last 5: WWDWL Their latest outing: 5–0 win over Džiugas Telšiai, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Suduva Marijampole, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over TransINVEST Vilnius, away. Away from home the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. 2.7 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Suduva Marijampole, collecting 3.0 points per game to 1.8 for Kauno Žalgiris.
Head to head
When they last met (23 May 2026) it ended Suduva Marijampole 2–1 Kauno Žalgiris.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Kauno Žalgiris 1.8 xG, Suduva Marijampole 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Kauno Žalgiris 62%, draw 21%, Suduva Marijampole 17%.
Lower-risk option: Kauno Žalgiris or draw (83%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.77.
Price worth noting: Kauno Žalgiris to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Kauno Žalgiris or draw (83%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Kauno Žalgiris 1–0 Suduva Marijampole. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Kauno Žalgiris62%fair 1.61 · @1.91
Draw21%fair 4.87 · @3.30
Suduva Marijampole17%fair 5.72 · @3.55
2.54Expected goals
1.76Kauno Žalgiris xG
0.78Suduva Marijampole xG
54%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Kauno Žalgiris 1.8 – 0.8 Suduva Marijampole expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Kauno Žalgiris vs Suduva Marijampole?
Our pick is Kauno Žalgiris or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Kauno Žalgiris vs Suduva Marijampole?
On our numbers Kauno Žalgiris have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Suduva Marijampole 17%.
How many goals will there be in Kauno Žalgiris vs Suduva Marijampole?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kauno Žalgiris vs Suduva Marijampole?
Our predicted score is Kauno Žalgiris 1–0 Suduva Marijampole, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Kauno Žalgiris vs Suduva Marijampole?
Kauno Žalgiris vs Suduva Marijampole (A Lyga) kicks off on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at 16:45 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
