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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

ST Mirren v East Kilbride: numbers & prediction

League Cup · Scotland · The SMISA Stadium

ST Mirren

WWWWD
4–3
FT

East Kilbride

WLWWW
ST Mirren 61%Draw 19%East Kilbride 20% Expected goals 2.30 – 1.74
73%
Betarazi pick

Over 2.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.38 · bookmaker 1.36 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.36Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 65% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +26%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultST Mirren to win ✓61% · @1.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.95
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓73% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.35

ST Mirren vs East Kilbride: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

19:45 WAT, Tuesday 21 July: ST Mirren v East Kilbride in the League Cup, played at The SMISA Stadium.

Current form

ST Mirren, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Cove Rangers, away. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

East Kilbride, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 5–3 win over Dumbarton, at home. 3.8 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give ST Mirren 2.3 xG, East Kilbride 1.7 xG – a total near 4.0. That is an open game on paper: 73% for three or more goals, 65% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – ST Mirren 61%, draw 19%, East Kilbride 20%.
  • GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.95.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 65%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (73%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: ST Mirren 2–1 East Kilbride. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

ST Mirren61%fair 1.64 · @1.15
Draw19%fair 5.28 · @6.25
East Kilbride20%fair 5.00 · @14.00
4.04Expected goals
2.30ST Mirren xG
1.74East Kilbride xG
65%Both score
73%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–18%
2–27%
1–17%
3–16%
1–26%
3–25%

From our goals model: ST Mirren 2.3 – 1.7 East Kilbride expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultST Mirren to win ✓61%1.641.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81%1.231.05
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓65%1.551.95 ▲
Draw no betST Mirren (draw no bet) ✓75%1.33–
Asian handicapEast Kilbride +1 (Asian handicap)61%1.63–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓91%1.10–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓73%1.381.36
Over/under 3.5 goalsOver 3.5 goals ✓53%1.891.93
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗66%1.511.33
First team to scoreST Mirren to score first ✗56%1.79–
Half-time resultST Mirren ahead at half-time ✗40%2.48–
Half-time / full-timeHT ST Mirren / FT ST Mirren ✗32%3.11–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8%12.35–

Recent results

ST Mirren – last 6

WWWWDD
18 Jul@ Cove Rangers4–0W
11 Jul@ Dumbarton4–0W
27 Jun@ Arbroath4–2W
25 Mayvs Partick1–0W
21 May@ Partick1–1D
17 Mayvs Dundee Utd1–1D
2.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

East Kilbride – last 6

WLWWWW
18 Julvs Dumbarton5–3W
14 Jul@ Cove Rangers2–3L
11 Julvs Dunfermline3–0W
27 Junvs Kelty Hearts4–0W
21 Febvs Dumbarton3–1W
17 Feb@ Elgin City6–1W
3.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between ST Mirren and East Kilbride.

ST Mirren vs East Kilbride head-to-head page →

More League Cup predictions

League hub
FT Kelty Hearts3 Brora Rangers2 151%1.35X19%4.60230%7.00 1.6–1.7xG GGBoth teams to score 62%@1.67 ✓
FT Livingston8 Forfar Athletic0 181%1.06X13%8.4026%29.00 2.7–0.6xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 68%@1.25 ✓
FT Partick2 Stenhousemuir2 Pens 3–5 166%1.25X22%5.10212%10.25 2.1–0.8xG 1Partick to win 66%@1.25 ✗
FT Raith Rovers1 Peterhead0 166%1.25X22%4.80212%11.00 1.9–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 67%@1.55 ✓
FT Ross County1 Dundee1 Pens 7–6 149%3.00X20%3.55231%2.05 2.5–1.5xG GGBoth teams to score 69%@1.50 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for ST Mirren vs East Kilbride?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.

Who will win ST Mirren vs East Kilbride?

On our numbers ST Mirren have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 19% and East Kilbride 20%.

How many goals will there be in ST Mirren vs East Kilbride?

We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 73% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for ST Mirren vs East Kilbride?

Our predicted score is ST Mirren 2–1 East Kilbride, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.

When is ST Mirren vs East Kilbride?

ST Mirren vs East Kilbride (League Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 21 July 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at The SMISA Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.