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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

CD Marathon v Real Estelí: numbers & prediction

Concacaf Central American Cup · World · Estadio Yankel Rosenthal

CD Marathon

DLWWD
3–0
FT

Real Estelí

LLWWW
CD Marathon 61%Draw 25%Real Estelí 14% Expected goals 1.51 – 0.55
86%
Betarazi pick

CD Marathon or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1

Value bet: CD Marathon to win @ 1.95 – our chance 61% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultCD Marathon to win ✓61% · @1.95
Double chanceCD Marathon or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.21

CD Marathon vs Real Estelí: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Thursday 27 August the Concacaf Central American Cup brings CD Marathon against Real Estelí at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal. Kick-off: 01:30 WAT.

Current form

CD Marathon, last 5: DLWWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Real Espana, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Real Estelí, last 5: LLWWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Diriangén, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give CD Marathon 1.5 xG, Real Estelí 0.6 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – CD Marathon 61%, draw 25%, Real Estelí 14%.
  • Lower-risk option: CD Marathon or draw (86%) at 1.20.
  • GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.57.
  • Price worth noting: CD Marathon to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 61%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was CD Marathon or draw (86%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: CD Marathon 1–0 Real Estelí. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

CD Marathon61%fair 1.64 · @1.95
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.10
Real Estelí14%fair 7.33 · @3.75
2.06Expected goals
1.51CD Marathon xG
0.55Real Estelí xG
49%Both score
35%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–019%
2–015%
0–013%
1–111%
2–18%
3–07%

From our goals model: CD Marathon 1.5 – 0.6 Real Estelí expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultCD Marathon to win ✓61%1.641.95 ▲
Double chanceCD Marathon or draw ✓86%1.161.20
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓51%1.981.57
Draw no betCD Marathon (draw no bet) ✓82%1.22–
Asian handicapCD Marathon -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓61%1.64–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓62%1.621.50
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗65%1.541.45
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82%1.221.17
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓94%1.06–
First team to scoreCD Marathon to score first ✓64%1.56–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗47%2.12–
Half-time / full-timeHT CD Marathon / FT CD Marathon ✓37%2.70–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19%5.21–

Recent results

CD Marathon – last 6

DLWWDW
23 Augvs Real Espana1–1D
20 Augvs Alianza0–1L
16 Aug@ Atlético Choloma1–0W
14 Aug@ Antigua GFC3–0W
8 Aug@ Platense FC1–1D
4 Augvs Atletico Independiente1–0W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Real Estelí – last 6

LLWWWW
23 Augvs Diriangén0–2L
19 Augvs CS Herediano0–2L
12 Augvs Alianza3–1W
8 Augvs Walter Ferretti4–1W
5 Aug@ Antigua GFC2–0W
30 Jul@ Jalapa1–0W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between CD Marathon and Real Estelí.

CD Marathon vs Real Estelí head-to-head page →

More Concacaf Central American Cup predictions

League hub
FT LD Alajuelense3 Plaza Amador1 165%1.73X21%3.65214%4.10 2.3–1.0xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 80%@1.22 ✓
FT Xelajú1 Firpo1 137%2.20X21%3.40241%2.85 1.4–1.5xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for CD Marathon vs Real Estelí?

Our pick is CD Marathon or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win CD Marathon vs Real Estelí?

On our numbers CD Marathon have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Real Estelí 14%.

How many goals will there be in CD Marathon vs Real Estelí?

We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for CD Marathon vs Real Estelí?

Our predicted score is CD Marathon 1–0 Real Estelí, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.

When is CD Marathon vs Real Estelí?

CD Marathon vs Real Estelí (Concacaf Central American Cup) kicks off on Thursday 27 August 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.