Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Grau to win ✓57% · @1.72
Double chanceAtletico Grau or draw ✓81% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.46
Atletico Grau vs UTC Cajamarca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Atletico Grau welcome UTC Cajamarca to Estadio Municipal Ambrosio Maco Arroyo for a Primera División fixture on Saturday 18 July (21:30 WAT). In the table, Atletico Grau are 11th, lower half, on 21 points after 16 matches; UTC Cajamarca are 18th (in the drop zone) with 6. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Atletico Grau, last 5: DDWWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Carlos A. Mannucci, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
UTC Cajamarca, last 5: WWDDL Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Deportiva Agropecuaria, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Momentum favours Atletico Grau, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for UTC Cajamarca.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Grau 1.7 xG, UTC Cajamarca 0.9 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Grau 57%, draw 24%, UTC Cajamarca 19%.
Lower-risk option: Atletico Grau or draw (81%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Grau 1–0 UTC Cajamarca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico Grau57%fair 1.76 · @1.72
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.50
UTC Cajamarca19%fair 5.37 · @4.90
2.54Expected goals
1.68Atletico Grau xG
0.86UTC Cajamarca xG
56%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Atletico Grau 1.7 – 0.9 UTC Cajamarca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Atletico Grau
UTC Cajamarca
Attack vs Primera División average
-16%
-12%
Goals conceded vs average
-3%
+25%
Our expected goals here
1.84
0.96
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Grau to win✓
57%
1.76
1.72
Double chance
Atletico Grau or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Atletico Grau (draw no bet)✓
75%
1.33
–
Asian handicap
UTC Cajamarca +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.07
First team to score
Atletico Grau to score first✓
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Grau / FT Atletico Grau✓
35%
2.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.46
–
Recent results
Atletico Grau – last 6
DDWWLW
9 Jul
vs Carlos A. Mannucci
1–1
D
27 Jun
@ Universitario
1–1
D
22 Jun
vs Molinos El Pirata
3–2
W
29 May
vs UCV Moquegua
1–0
W
23 May
@ Cusco
0–1
L
16 May
@ Universitario
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
UTC Cajamarca – last 6
WWDDLL
12 Jul
vs Deportiva Agropecuaria
4–1
W
26 Jun
vs FC Cajamarca
3–1
W
15 Jun
@ Deportivo Llacuabamba
2–2
D
31 May
@ Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2–2
D
17 May
@ Deportivo Garcilaso
0–2
L
8 May
vs FC Cajamarca
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Grau and UTC Cajamarca.
What is the prediction for Atletico Grau vs UTC Cajamarca?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Atletico Grau vs UTC Cajamarca?
On our numbers Atletico Grau have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 24% and UTC Cajamarca 19%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Grau vs UTC Cajamarca?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Grau vs UTC Cajamarca?
Our predicted score is Atletico Grau 1–0 UTC Cajamarca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Atletico Grau vs UTC Cajamarca?
Atletico Grau vs UTC Cajamarca (Primera División) kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Ambrosio Maco Arroyo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
