UCV Moquegua 40%Draw 28%Comerciantes Unidos 32%Expected goals 1.17 – 1.09
79%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Comerciantes Unidos to win @ 3.45 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultUCV Moquegua to win ✗40% · @2.14
Double chanceEither team to win ✗72% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.88
UCV Moquegua vs Comerciantes Unidos: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
UCV Moquegua welcome Comerciantes Unidos to Estadio 25 de Noviembre for a Primera División fixture on Saturday 18 July (17:00 WAT). In the table, UCV Moquegua are 17th, in the drop zone, on 12 points after 16 matches; Comerciantes Unidos are 13th (lower half) with 16.
Current form
UCV Moquegua, last 5: DDWLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Deportivo Garcilaso, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Comerciantes Unidos, last 5: DLLDL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Juan Pablo II College, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 4 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.0 goals a game.
Momentum favours UCV Moquegua, collecting 0.8 points per game to 0.3 for Comerciantes Unidos.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give UCV Moquegua 1.2 xG, Comerciantes Unidos 1.1 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – UCV Moquegua 40%, draw 28%, Comerciantes Unidos 32%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Comerciantes Unidos to win @3.45 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: UCV Moquegua 1–1 Comerciantes Unidos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
UCV Moquegua40%fair 2.47 · @2.14
Draw28%fair 3.60 · @3.20
Comerciantes Unidos32%fair 3.15 · @3.45
2.26Expected goals
1.17UCV Moquegua xG
1.09Comerciantes Unidos xG
53%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: UCV Moquegua 1.2 – 1.1 Comerciantes Unidos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
UCV Moquegua
Comerciantes Unidos
Attack vs Primera División average
-42%
+2%
Goals conceded vs average
-3%
+2%
Our expected goals here
1.03
1.11
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
UCV Moquegua to win✗
40%
2.47
2.14
Double chance
Either team to win✗
72%
1.39
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.91
Draw no bet
UCV Moquegua (draw no bet)
56%
1.78
–
Asian handicap
Comerciantes Unidos +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.10
1.06
First team to score
UCV Moquegua to score first
46%
2.16
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT UCV Moquegua / FT UCV Moquegua✗
21%
4.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.88
–
Recent results
UCV Moquegua – last 6
DDWLLL
12 Jul
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
0–0
D
29 Jun
@ FBC Melgar
0–0
D
21 Jun
vs Bentín Tacna Heroica
3–2
W
29 May
@ Atletico Grau
0–1
L
17 May
@ Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0–1
L
3 May
@ Alianza Lima
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Comerciantes Unidos – last 6
DLLDLL
27 Jun
vs Juan Pablo II College
0–0
D
11 Jun
@ Deportiva Agropecuaria
0–2
L
30 May
@ Sport Boys
0–1
L
25 May
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
0–0
D
17 May
@ ADT
0–2
L
2 May
@ Cienciano
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UCV Moquegua and Comerciantes Unidos.
What is the prediction for UCV Moquegua vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win UCV Moquegua vs Comerciantes Unidos?
On our numbers UCV Moquegua have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Comerciantes Unidos 32%.
How many goals will there be in UCV Moquegua vs Comerciantes Unidos?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UCV Moquegua vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Our predicted score is UCV Moquegua 1–1 Comerciantes Unidos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is UCV Moquegua vs Comerciantes Unidos?
UCV Moquegua vs Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División) kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 25 de Noviembre.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
