Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.38 – our chance 51% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAlianza Lima to win ✓69% · @1.20
Double chanceAlianza Lima or draw ✓88% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.38
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.61
Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
01:30 WAT, Sunday 16 August: Alianza Lima v UTC Cajamarca in the Primera División, played at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva. In the table, Alianza Lima are 6th, upper half, on 29 points after 16 matches; UTC Cajamarca are 18th (in the drop zone) with 6. There are 23 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Alianza Lima, last 5: DWDWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Sport Boys, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
UTC Cajamarca, last 5: DLDLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with ADT, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alianza Lima 2.1 xG, UTC Cajamarca 0.7 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alianza Lima 69%, draw 19%, UTC Cajamarca 12%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.38.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.38 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alianza Lima 2–0 UTC Cajamarca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alianza Lima69%fair 1.45 · @1.20
Draw19%fair 5.21 · @5.50
UTC Cajamarca12%fair 8.51 · @17.50
2.77Expected goals
2.06Alianza Lima xG
0.71UTC Cajamarca xG
51%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–013%
1–013%
2–19%
3–09%
1–19%
3–16%
From our goals model: Alianza Lima 2.1 – 0.7 UTC Cajamarca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza Lima to win✓
69%
1.45
1.20
Double chance
Alianza Lima or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
2.38 ▲
Draw no bet
Alianza Lima (draw no bet)✓
85%
1.17
–
Asian handicap
Alianza Lima -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.48
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.18
First team to score
Alianza Lima to score first✓
70%
1.43
–
Half-time result
Alianza Lima ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alianza Lima / FT Alianza Lima✓
45%
2.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.61
–
Recent results
Alianza Lima – last 6
DWDWLL
9 Aug
@ Sport Boys
1–1
D
2 Aug
vs Alianza Atletico
3–1
W
26 Jul
@ Comerciantes Unidos
2–2
D
20 Jul
vs Sport Huancayo
2–1
W
28 Jun
vs Alianza Atletico
1–2
L
21 Jun
@ Carlos A. Mannucci
1–3
L
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
UTC Cajamarca – last 6
DLDLWW
8 Aug
vs ADT
1–1
D
2 Aug
@ Cusco
1–4
L
26 Jul
vs UCV Moquegua
0–0
D
18 Jul
@ Atletico Grau
1–3
L
12 Jul
vs Deportiva Agropecuaria
4–1
W
26 Jun
vs FC Cajamarca
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza Lima and UTC Cajamarca.
What is the prediction for Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca?
On our numbers Alianza Lima have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 19% and UTC Cajamarca 12%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca?
Our predicted score is Alianza Lima 2–0 UTC Cajamarca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca?
Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
