UCV Moquegua 35%Draw 24%Sport Boys 40%Expected goals 1.04 – 1.14
81%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Sport Boys to win @ 2.80 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSport Boys to win ✗40% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 13.09
UCV Moquegua vs Sport Boys: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:15 WAT, Sunday 16 August: UCV Moquegua v Sport Boys in the Primera División, played at Estadio 25 de Noviembre. In the table, UCV Moquegua are 17th, in the drop zone, on 12 points after 16 matches; Sport Boys are 8th (upper half) with 26. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
UCV Moquegua, last 5: LDDDD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Deportivo Garcilaso, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Sport Boys, last 5: DWWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Alianza Lima, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Sport Boys, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.8 for UCV Moquegua.
Head to head
When they last met (1 Mar 2026) it ended Sport Boys 0–0 UCV Moquegua.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give UCV Moquegua 1.0 xG, Sport Boys 1.1 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 61%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – UCV Moquegua 35%, draw 24%, Sport Boys 40%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Sport Boys to win @2.80 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (81%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: UCV Moquegua 1–1 Sport Boys. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
UCV Moquegua35%fair 2.84 · @2.64
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.00
Sport Boys40%fair 2.48 · @2.80
2.18Expected goals
1.04UCV Moquegua xG
1.14Sport Boys xG
52%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–113%
1–012%
0–011%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: UCV Moquegua 1.0 – 1.1 Sport Boys expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for UCV Moquegua vs Sport Boys?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win UCV Moquegua vs Sport Boys?
On our numbers UCV Moquegua have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sport Boys 40%.
How many goals will there be in UCV Moquegua vs Sport Boys?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UCV Moquegua vs Sport Boys?
Our predicted score is UCV Moquegua 1–1 Sport Boys, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is UCV Moquegua vs Sport Boys?
UCV Moquegua vs Sport Boys (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 25 de Noviembre.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
