Alianza Valledupar 17%Draw 23%Atletico Nacional 60%Expected goals 0.77 – 1.70
83%
Betarazi pick
Atletico Nacional or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Atletico Nacional to win @ 1.91 – our chance 60% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✓60% · @1.91
Double chanceAtletico Nacional or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.63
Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 30 August the Primera A brings Alianza Valledupar against Atletico Nacional at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau. Kick-off: 02:30 WAT. In the table, Alianza Valledupar are 16th, lower half, on 18 points after 18 matches; Atletico Nacional are 1st (leading the league) with 39. There are 21 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Alianza Valledupar, last 5: LDLLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Cucuta, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Atletico Nacional, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Deportivo Cali, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Atletico Nacional, collecting 2.5 points per game to 0.8 for Alianza Valledupar.
Head to head
When they last met (22 Feb 2026) it ended Atletico Nacional 3–0 Alianza Valledupar.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alianza Valledupar 0.8 xG, Atletico Nacional 1.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alianza Valledupar 17%, draw 23%, Atletico Nacional 60%.
Lower-risk option: Atletico Nacional or draw (83%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Atletico Nacional to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Atletico Nacional or draw (83%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alianza Valledupar 0–1 Atletico Nacional. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alianza Valledupar17%fair 5.93 · @4.00
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @3.10
Atletico Nacional60%fair 1.67 · @1.91
2.47Expected goals
0.77Alianza Valledupar xG
1.70Atletico Nacional xG
51%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
0–212%
1–111%
1–29%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: Alianza Valledupar 0.8 – 1.7 Atletico Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional?
Our pick is Atletico Nacional or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional?
On our numbers Alianza Valledupar have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Atletico Nacional 60%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional?
Our predicted score is Alianza Valledupar 0–1 Atletico Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional?
Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
