Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Independiente Medellin to win @ 1.83 – our chance 62% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente Medellin to win ✗62% · @1.83
Double chanceIndependiente Medellin or draw ✗83% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.59
Chico vs Independiente Medellin: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:10 WAT, Sunday 13 September: Chico v Independiente Medellin in the Primera A, played at Estadio La Independencia. In the table, Chico are 15th, lower half, on 19 points after 18 matches; Independiente Medellin are 6th (upper half) with 29.
Current form
Chico, last 5: WDDLL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Once Caldas, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Independiente Medellin, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Deportivo Pasto, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately.
Momentum favours Independiente Medellin, collecting 2.5 points per game to 0.8 for Chico.
Head to head
When they last met (23 Apr 2026) it ended Independiente Medellin 2–0 Chico.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Chico 0.8 xG, Independiente Medellin 1.8 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 49%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Chico 17%, draw 21%, Independiente Medellin 62%.
Lower-risk option: Independiente Medellin or draw (83%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Independiente Medellin to win @1.83 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Independiente Medellin or draw (83%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Chico 0–1 Independiente Medellin. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Chico17%fair 5.88 · @4.20
Draw21%fair 4.69 · @3.30
Independiente Medellin62%fair 1.62 · @1.83
2.62Expected goals
0.81Chico xG
1.81Independiente Medellin xG
49%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–07%
0–37%
From our goals model: Chico 0.8 – 1.8 Independiente Medellin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win✗
62%
1.62
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Independiente Medellin or draw✗
83%
1.20
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
1.85
Draw no bet
Independiente Medellin (draw no bet)✗
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Independiente Medellin -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
–
First team to score
Independiente Medellin to score first
64%
1.56
–
Half-time result
Independiente Medellin ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin✗
What is the prediction for Chico vs Independiente Medellin?
Our pick is Independiente Medellin or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Chico vs Independiente Medellin?
On our numbers Chico have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Independiente Medellin 62%.
How many goals will there be in Chico vs Independiente Medellin?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chico vs Independiente Medellin?
Our predicted score is Chico 0–1 Independiente Medellin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Chico vs Independiente Medellin?
Chico vs Independiente Medellin (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 00:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Independencia.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
