Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Independiente Medellin to win @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente Medellin to win ✗60% · @1.95
Double chanceIndependiente Medellin or draw ✗83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.22
Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Once Caldas travel to face Independiente Medellin on Sunday 18 October in the Primera A, with Estadio Atanasio Girardot the venue – the ball rolls at 02:10 WAT. In the table, Independiente Medellin are 6th, upper half, on 29 points after 18 matches; Once Caldas are 8th (upper half) with 27. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Independiente Medellin, last 5: LWLDL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Atletico Nacional, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Once Caldas, last 5: WDLLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Llaneros, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Head to head
When they last met (3 Apr 2026) it ended Once Caldas 1–1 Independiente Medellin.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente Medellin 1.8 xG, Once Caldas 0.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente Medellin 60%, draw 24%, Once Caldas 17%.
Lower-risk option: Independiente Medellin or draw (83%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Independiente Medellin to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Independiente Medellin or draw (83%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.20, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente Medellin 1–0 Once Caldas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente Medellin60%fair 1.68 · @1.95
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.20
Once Caldas17%fair 6.02 · @3.70
2.70Expected goals
1.83Independiente Medellin xG
0.87Once Caldas xG
58%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Independiente Medellin 1.8 – 0.9 Once Caldas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win✗
60%
1.68
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Independiente Medellin or draw✗
83%
1.20
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.75
Draw no bet
Independiente Medellin (draw no bet)✗
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Independiente Medellin -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Independiente Medellin to score first✗
63%
1.58
–
Half-time result
Independiente Medellin ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin✗
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas?
Our pick is Independiente Medellin or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas?
On our numbers Independiente Medellin have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Once Caldas 17%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas?
Our predicted score is Independiente Medellin 1–0 Once Caldas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas?
Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 02:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
