Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Lazio to win @ 2.05 – our chance 56% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLazio to win ✓56% · @2.05
Double chanceLazio or draw ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓24% · fair 4.22
Lazio vs Genoa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 30 August the Serie A brings Lazio against Genoa at Stadio Olimpico. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT. In the table, Lazio are 1st, leading the league, on 29 points after 11 matches; Genoa are 13th (lower half) with 13. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Lazio, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Bologna, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately.
Genoa, last 5: LWLLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Napoli, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Lazio, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.2 for Genoa.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lazio 1.1 xG, Genoa 0.4 xG – a total near 1.5. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 81% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lazio 56%, draw 24%, Genoa 20%.
Lower-risk option: Lazio or draw (80%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: NG (56%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Lazio to win @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Lazio or draw (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lazio 1–0 Genoa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lazio56%fair 1.80 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.00
Genoa20%fair 5.04 · @4.00
1.50Expected goals
1.06Lazio xG
0.44Genoa xG
44%Both score
19%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–024%
0–022%
2–013%
1–110%
0–110%
2–16%
From our goals model: Lazio 1.1 – 0.4 Genoa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lazio to win✓
56%
1.80
2.05 ▲
Double chance
Lazio or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.75
Draw no bet
Lazio (draw no bet)✓
74%
1.36
–
Asian handicap
Genoa +1 (Asian handicap)
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
98%
1.02
–
First team to score
Lazio to score first✓
55%
1.82
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
56%
1.77
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lazio / FT Lazio✓
29%
3.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
24%
4.22
–
Recent results
Lazio – last 6
WLWWWW
24 Aug
@ Bologna
1–0
W
16 Aug
vs Mantova
0–2
L
9 Aug
@ Frosinone
2–1
W
5 Aug
vs Ostia Mare
4–0
W
2 Aug
@ Ascoli
2–1
W
1 Aug
vs Avellino
6–3
W
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Genoa – last 6
LWLLWD
22 Aug
vs Napoli
0–2
L
16 Aug
vs Ascoli
4–1
W
8 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruna
0–1
L
4 Aug
@ Bournemouth
1–10
L
1 Aug
@ Leicester
1–0
W
25 Jul
vs Vicenza Virtus
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lazio and Genoa.
Our pick is Lazio or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Lazio vs Genoa?
On our numbers Lazio have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Genoa 20%.
How many goals will there be in Lazio vs Genoa?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lazio vs Genoa?
Our predicted score is Lazio 1–0 Genoa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Lazio vs Genoa?
Lazio vs Genoa (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Olimpico.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
