Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Toluca to win @ 2.90 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultGuadalajara Chivas to win ✗39% · @2.24
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.49
Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 19 July the Liga MX brings Guadalajara Chivas against Toluca at Estadio Akron. Kick-off: 02:07 WAT. In the table, Guadalajara Chivas are 3rd, among the top four, on 30 points after 16 matches; Toluca are 4th (among the top four) with 27. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Guadalajara Chivas, last 5: DLDWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Correcaminos Uat, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Toluca, last 5: DLLWL Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Atlante FC, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (1 Mar 2026) it ended Toluca 2–0 Guadalajara Chivas.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Guadalajara Chivas 1.5 xG, Toluca 1.4 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 61% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Guadalajara Chivas 39%, draw 24%, Toluca 37%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: Toluca to win @2.90 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Guadalajara Chivas 1–1 Toluca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Guadalajara Chivas39%fair 2.59 · @2.24
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.60
Toluca37%fair 2.68 · @2.90
2.97Expected goals
1.54Guadalajara Chivas xG
1.43Toluca xG
61%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–08%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Guadalajara Chivas 1.5 – 1.4 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Guadalajara Chivas
Toluca
Attack vs Liga MX average
+8%
+30%
Goals conceded vs average
-25%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.61
1.37
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca?
On our numbers Guadalajara Chivas have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Toluca 37%.
How many goals will there be in Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is Guadalajara Chivas 1–1 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca?
Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 19 July 2026 at 02:07 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Akron.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
