Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.00 – our chance 55% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAtlas to win ✗39% · @2.56
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.68
Atlas vs Monterrey: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 2 August the Liga MX brings Atlas against Monterrey at Estadio Jalisco. Kick-off: 02:05 WAT. In the table, Atlas are 5th, upper half, on 27 points after 16 matches; Monterrey are 10th (lower half) with 21.
Current form
Atlas, last 5: WWLDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Santos Laguna, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Monterrey, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Necaxa, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Monterrey, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Atlas.
Head to head
When they last met (12 Apr 2026) it ended Atlas 0–0 Monterrey.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atlas 1.7 xG, Monterrey 1.6 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 55% and GG at 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atlas 39%, draw 25%, Monterrey 36%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.77.
Price worth noting: Over 2.5 goals @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.35 – longer than our fair 1.31, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atlas 1–1 Monterrey. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atlas39%fair 2.58 · @2.56
Draw25%fair 4.03 · @3.20
Monterrey36%fair 2.75 · @2.72
3.23Expected goals
1.66Atlas xG
1.57Monterrey xG
59%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–19%
1–28%
2–27%
1–07%
0–16%
From our goals model: Atlas 1.7 – 1.6 Monterrey expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Atlas
Monterrey
Attack vs Liga MX average
+4%
+5%
Goals conceded vs average
+14%
+10%
Our expected goals here
1.84
1.68
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Atlas vs Monterrey?
On our numbers Atlas have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Monterrey 36%.
How many goals will there be in Atlas vs Monterrey?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlas vs Monterrey?
Our predicted score is Atlas 1–1 Monterrey, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Atlas vs Monterrey?
Atlas vs Monterrey (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 02:05 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Leon1