Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
Picks by market
ResultToluca to win ✗41% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.69
Cruz Azul vs Toluca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 26 September the Liga MX brings Cruz Azul against Toluca at Estadio Banorte. Kick-off: 23:50 WAT. In the table, Cruz Azul are 1st, leading the league, on 32 points after 16 matches; Toluca are 4th (among the top four) with 27.
Current form
Cruz Azul, last 5: LLWWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Monterrey, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Toluca, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Santos Laguna, at home. The attack is flying at 2.7 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Toluca, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.5 for Cruz Azul.
Head to head
When they last met (26 Jul 2026) it ended Toluca 1–3 Cruz Azul.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cruz Azul 1.6 xG, Toluca 1.6 xG – a total near 3.2. That is an open game on paper: 60% for three or more goals, 64% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cruz Azul 38%, draw 21%, Toluca 41%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.53.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (64%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cruz Azul 1–1 Toluca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cruz Azul38%fair 2.65 · @2.62
Draw21%fair 4.71 · @3.60
Toluca41%fair 2.44 · @2.55
3.18Expected goals
1.55Cruz Azul xG
1.62Toluca xG
64%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–17%
2–27%
1–06%
From our goals model: Cruz Azul 1.6 – 1.6 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
On our numbers Cruz Azul have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Toluca 41%.
How many goals will there be in Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is Cruz Azul 1–1 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
Cruz Azul vs Toluca (Liga MX) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 23:50 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banorte.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
