Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Monterrey to win @ 1.75 – our chance 61% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMonterrey to win ✓61% · @1.75
Double chanceMonterrey or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.35
Puebla vs Monterrey: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Monterrey travel to face Puebla on Thursday 22 October in the Liga MX, with Estadio Cuauhtémoc the venue – the ball rolls at 02:00 WAT. In the table, Puebla are 13th, lower half, on 19 points after 16 matches; Monterrey are 10th (lower half) with 21. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Puebla, last 5: DDLDL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Club Tijuana, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Monterrey, last 5: WDLWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over CF Pachuca, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (22 Apr 2026) it ended Monterrey 2–1 Puebla.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Puebla 0.8 xG, Monterrey 1.8 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Puebla 17%, draw 22%, Monterrey 61%.
Lower-risk option: Monterrey or draw (83%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Monterrey to win @1.75 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Monterrey or draw (83%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Puebla 0–1 Monterrey. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Puebla17%fair 5.81 · @3.75
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.40
Monterrey61%fair 1.65 · @1.75
2.61Expected goals
0.82Puebla xG
1.79Monterrey xG
58%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–07%
0–37%
From our goals model: Puebla 0.8 – 1.8 Monterrey expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Monterrey or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Puebla vs Monterrey?
On our numbers Puebla have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Monterrey 61%.
How many goals will there be in Puebla vs Monterrey?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Puebla vs Monterrey?
Our predicted score is Puebla 0–1 Monterrey, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Puebla vs Monterrey?
Puebla vs Monterrey (Liga MX) kicks off on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Cuauhtémoc.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
