Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.70Odds
Picks by market
ResultToluca to win ✓66% · @1.70
Double chanceToluca or draw ✓86% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · @1.12
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.33
Toluca vs Monterrey: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 8 November the Liga MX brings Toluca against Monterrey at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Kick-off: 02:00 WAT. In the table, Toluca are 4th, among the top four, on 27 points after 16 matches; Monterrey are 10th (lower half) with 21.
Current form
Toluca, last 5: DDDDL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Club America, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Monterrey, last 5: DLWWD Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Club Tijuana, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Head to head
When they last met (7 Sep 2026) it ended Toluca 2–0 Monterrey.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Toluca 2.4 xG, Monterrey 1.0 xG – a total near 3.4. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 65% and GG at 64%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Toluca 66%, draw 19%, Monterrey 14%.
Lower-risk option: Toluca or draw (86%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.50.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Toluca to win (66%, odds 1.70 – longer than our fair 1.51, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Toluca 2–1 Monterrey. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Toluca66%fair 1.51 · @1.70
Draw19%fair 5.15 · @4.00
Monterrey14%fair 6.95 · @4.50
3.38Expected goals
2.35Toluca xG
1.03Monterrey xG
64%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–09%
1–18%
1–08%
3–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: Toluca 2.4 – 1.0 Monterrey expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Toluca to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Toluca vs Monterrey?
On our numbers Toluca have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Monterrey 14%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs Monterrey?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs Monterrey?
Our predicted score is Toluca 2–1 Monterrey, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs Monterrey?
Toluca vs Monterrey (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Diez.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
