Lokomotiv Plovdiv 16%Draw 20%CSKA Sofia 64%Expected goals 0.73 – 1.77
64%
Betarazi pick
CSKA Sofia to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCSKA Sofia to win ✗64% · @1.44
Double chanceCSKA Sofia or draw ✓84% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.66
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:45 WAT, Sunday 20 September: Lokomotiv Plovdiv v CSKA Sofia in the First League, played at Stadion Lokomotiv. In the table, Lokomotiv Plovdiv are 11th, lower half, on 12 points after 14 matches; CSKA Sofia are 1st (leading the league) with 34. There are 22 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Lokomotiv Plovdiv, last 5: LWLLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Botev Plovdiv, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
CSKA Sofia, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Lokomotiv Sofia, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.
Momentum favours CSKA Sofia, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.5 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.7 xG, CSKA Sofia 1.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lokomotiv Plovdiv 16%, draw 20%, CSKA Sofia 64%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was CSKA Sofia to win (64%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–1 CSKA Sofia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lokomotiv Plovdiv16%fair 6.22 · @6.50
Draw20%fair 4.94 · @3.70
CSKA Sofia64%fair 1.57 · @1.44
2.50Expected goals
0.73Lokomotiv Plovdiv xG
1.77CSKA Sofia xG
54%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–115%
0–213%
1–111%
1–29%
0–08%
0–38%
From our goals model: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.7 – 1.8 CSKA Sofia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CSKA Sofia to win✗
64%
1.57
1.44
Double chance
CSKA Sofia or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
CSKA Sofia (draw no bet)
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
CSKA Sofia -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
CSKA Sofia to score first
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
CSKA Sofia ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CSKA Sofia / FT CSKA Sofia✗
39%
2.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.66
–
Recent results
Lokomotiv Plovdiv – last 6
LWLLLL
13 Sep
@ Botev Plovdiv
0–2
L
6 Sep
vs Cherno More Varna
1–0
W
28 Aug
@ CSKA 1948
0–2
L
24 Aug
vs Arda Kardzhali
0–1
L
16 Aug
vs Dunav Ruse
1–2
L
7 Aug
@ Levski Sofia
0–2
L
0.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
CSKA Sofia – last 6
WWWDWL
16 Sep
@ Lokomotiv Sofia
2–0
W
12 Sep
vs Arda Kardzhali
4–1
W
9 Sep
@ Levski Sofia
4–2
W
5 Sep
@ Spartak Varna
1–1
D
30 Aug
vs Cherno More Varna
3–1
W
27 Aug
vs OFI
0–2
L
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lokomotiv Plovdiv and CSKA Sofia.
What is the prediction for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia?
Our pick is CSKA Sofia to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia?
On our numbers Lokomotiv Plovdiv have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 20% and CSKA Sofia 64%.
How many goals will there be in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia?
Our predicted score is Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–1 CSKA Sofia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia (First League) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Lokomotiv.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
