Value bet: Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win @ 3.50 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLokomotiv Sofia to win ✗44% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.92
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lokomotiv Plovdiv travel to face Lokomotiv Sofia on Saturday 10 October in the First League, with Lokomotiv Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 15:30 WAT. In the table, Lokomotiv Sofia are 14th, in the drop zone, on 9 points after 14 matches; Lokomotiv Plovdiv are 11th (lower half) with 12. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Lokomotiv Sofia, last 5: WLDLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Spartak Varna, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv, last 5: WDLWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Arda Kardzhali, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Head to head
When they last met (3 Apr 2026) it ended Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Lokomotiv Sofia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lokomotiv Sofia 1.3 xG, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.1 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lokomotiv Sofia 44%, draw 23%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 33%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (55%, odds 1.95 – longer than our fair 1.81, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lokomotiv Sofia44%fair 2.29 · @2.00
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.00
Lokomotiv Plovdiv33%fair 3.04 · @3.50
2.35Expected goals
1.29Lokomotiv Sofia xG
1.06Lokomotiv Plovdiv xG
55%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Lokomotiv Sofia 1.3 – 1.1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
On our numbers Lokomotiv Sofia have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Lokomotiv Plovdiv 33%.
How many goals will there be in Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Our predicted score is Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv (First League) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Lokomotiv Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
