De Graafschap 65%Draw 14%Jong AZ 21%Expected goals 1.81 – 0.82
65%
Betarazi pick
De Graafschap to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.77 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.77Odds
U3.5
Value bet: Under 3.5 goals @ 2.00 – our chance 60% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDe Graafschap to win ✗65% · @1.77
Double chanceEither team to win ✓86% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.33
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.08
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.33
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
De Graafschap welcome Jong AZ to De Vijverberg for a Eerste Divisie fixture on Monday 17 August (19:00 WAT). In the table, De Graafschap are 1st, leading the league, on 0 points after 0 matches; Jong AZ are 19th (in the drop zone) with 0. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
De Graafschap, last 5: DLWLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Helmond Sport, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Jong AZ, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to FC Eindhoven, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 3.3 a game lately.
Momentum favours Jong AZ, collecting 2.5 points per game to 0.7 for De Graafschap.
Head to head
When they last met (6 Apr 2026) it ended De Graafschap 5–0 Jong AZ.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give De Graafschap 1.8 xG, Jong AZ 0.8 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 61%, GG 63%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – De Graafschap 65%, draw 14%, Jong AZ 21%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.33.
Price worth noting: Under 3.5 goals @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was De Graafschap to win (65%, odds 1.77 – longer than our fair 1.54, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: De Graafschap 1–0 Jong AZ. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
De Graafschap65%fair 1.54 · @1.77
Draw14%fair 7.15 · @4.40
Jong AZ21%fair 4.78 · @3.65
2.63Expected goals
1.81De Graafschap xG
0.82Jong AZ xG
63%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: De Graafschap 1.8 – 0.8 Jong AZ expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our pick is De Graafschap to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.77.
Who will win De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
On our numbers De Graafschap have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Jong AZ 21%.
How many goals will there be in De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our predicted score is De Graafschap 1–0 Jong AZ, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at De Vijverberg.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
