Value bet: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.80 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAjax to win ✗69% · @1.44
Double chanceAjax or draw ✓89% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.11
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.29
Ajax vs Heerenveen: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Heerenveen travel to face Ajax on Sunday 16 August in the Eredivisie, with Johan Cruijff Arena the venue – the ball rolls at 15:45 WAT. In the table, Ajax are 3rd, among the top four, on 25 points after 12 matches; Heerenveen are 6th (upper half) with 21.
Current form
Ajax, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Shelbourne, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.7 a game lately.
Heerenveen, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Twente, at home. The attack is flying at 3.3 goals per game.
Momentum favours Ajax, collecting 2.7 points per game to 2.2 for Heerenveen.
Head to head
When they last met (17 May 2026) it ended Heerenveen 0–0 Ajax.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ajax 1.9 xG, Heerenveen 0.6 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 57%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ajax 69%, draw 20%, Heerenveen 11%.
Lower-risk option: Ajax or draw (89%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: Under 3.5 goals @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 64%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Ajax to win (69%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ajax 1–0 Heerenveen. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ajax69%fair 1.44 · @1.44
Draw20%fair 5.11 · @4.90
Heerenveen11%fair 9.01 · @5.80
2.51Expected goals
1.91Ajax xG
0.59Heerenveen xG
58%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–015%
3–010%
1–19%
2–19%
0–08%
From our goals model: Ajax 1.9 – 0.6 Heerenveen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Ajax to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Ajax vs Heerenveen?
On our numbers Ajax have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Heerenveen 11%.
How many goals will there be in Ajax vs Heerenveen?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ajax vs Heerenveen?
Our predicted score is Ajax 1–0 Heerenveen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Ajax vs Heerenveen?
Ajax vs Heerenveen (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at Johan Cruijff Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
