Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultAjax to win ✓60% · @1.65
Double chanceAjax or draw ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗67% · @1.40
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗71% · fair 1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.84
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Ajax welcome AZ Alkmaar to Johan Cruijff Arena for a Eredivisie fixture on Saturday 31 October (21:00 WAT). In the table, Ajax are 3rd, among the top four, on 25 points after 12 matches; AZ Alkmaar are 5th (upper half) with 23. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Ajax, last 5: WWWLD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Sparta Rotterdam, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.
AZ Alkmaar, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Twente, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ajax 2.4 xG, AZ Alkmaar 1.3 xG – a total near 3.7. That is an open game on paper: 71% for three or more goals, 67% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ajax 60%, draw 20%, AZ Alkmaar 20%.
Lower-risk option: Ajax or draw (80%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (67%) at 1.40.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Ajax or draw (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ajax 2–1 AZ Alkmaar. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ajax60%fair 1.68 · @1.65
Draw20%fair 4.94 · @4.20
AZ Alkmaar20%fair 4.95 · @4.00
3.70Expected goals
2.36Ajax xG
1.34AZ Alkmaar xG
67%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
2–07%
2–26%
1–06%
From our goals model: Ajax 2.4 – 1.3 AZ Alkmaar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ajax to win✓
60%
1.68
1.65
Double chance
Ajax or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
67%
1.48
1.40
Draw no bet
Ajax (draw no bet)✓
75%
1.34
–
Asian handicap
Ajax -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
88%
1.13
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
51%
1.98
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
First team to score
Ajax to score first✓
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Ajax ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ajax / FT Ajax✓
39%
2.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.84
–
Recent results
Ajax – last 6
WWWLDD
25 Oct
@ Sparta Rotterdam
2–1
W
22 Oct
vs Atalanta
2–0
W
18 Oct
@ Groningen
5–2
W
15 Oct
@ HNK Hajduk Split
1–2
L
10 Oct
vs NEC Nijmegen
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Excelsior
2–2
D
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
AZ Alkmaar – last 6
LWDWLW
25 Oct
vs Twente
0–2
L
22 Oct
@ Ararat-Armenia
4–0
W
18 Oct
@ Cambuur
2–2
D
15 Oct
vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
2–1
W
10 Oct
@ Feyenoord
0–2
L
20 Sep
vs Telstar
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ajax and AZ Alkmaar.
Our pick is Ajax or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
On our numbers Ajax have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 20% and AZ Alkmaar 20%.
How many goals will there be in Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our predicted score is Ajax 2–1 AZ Alkmaar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie) kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Johan Cruijff Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
