Lorient vs Toulouse: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Toulouse travel to face Lorient on Saturday 12 September in the Ligue 1, with Stade du Moustoir the venue – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT. In the table, Lorient are 10th, lower half, on 15 points after 10 matches; Toulouse are 12th (lower half) with 13. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Lorient, last 5: WLDLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Lens, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Toulouse, last 5: LDLLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Lille, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lorient 0.9 xG, Toulouse 0.9 xG – a total near 1.8. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 72%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lorient 39%, draw 23%, Toulouse 38%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (52%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lorient 1–1 Toulouse. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lorient39%fair 2.59 · @2.50
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.10
Toulouse38%fair 2.62 · @2.75
1.83Expected goals
0.92Lorient xG
0.91Toulouse xG
52%Both score
28%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–016%
1–015%
0–115%
1–113%
2–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Lorient 0.9 – 0.9 Toulouse expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lorient to win✗
39%
2.59
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
1.75
Draw no bet
Lorient (draw no bet)
50%
1.99
–
Asian handicap
Toulouse +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
89%
1.13
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
96%
1.04
–
First team to score
Lorient to score first✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
52%
1.91
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
24%
4.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
6%
16.21
–
Recent results
Lorient – last 6
WLDLLW
5 Sep
@ Lens
1–0
W
29 Aug
vs Estac Troyes
1–2
L
22 Aug
@ Nice
0–0
D
15 Aug
@ SV Elversberg
1–4
L
8 Aug
@ Angers
1–2
L
4 Aug
vs UNFP
5–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Toulouse – last 6
LDLLWD
3 Sep
vs Lille
0–1
L
29 Aug
@ Stade Brestois 29
2–2
D
22 Aug
vs Lyon
0–2
L
15 Aug
vs Hamburger SV
1–2
L
31 Jul
vs Real Sociedad
2–1
W
25 Jul
vs Rodez
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lorient and Toulouse.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Lorient vs Toulouse?
On our numbers Lorient have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Toulouse 38%.
How many goals will there be in Lorient vs Toulouse?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lorient vs Toulouse?
Our predicted score is Lorient 1–1 Toulouse, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Lorient vs Toulouse?
Lorient vs Toulouse (Ligue 1) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade du Moustoir.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
