Marseille vs Le Havre: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Le Havre travel to face Marseille on Sunday 25 October in the Ligue 1, with Orange Vélodrome the venue – the ball rolls at 17:15 WAT. In the table, Marseille are 4th, among the top four, on 18 points after 10 matches; Le Havre are 18th (in the drop zone) with 2. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Marseille, last 5: LWLWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Sturm Graz, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Le Havre, last 5: LLLDL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Auxerre, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Marseille, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.3 for Le Havre.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Marseille 2.1 xG, Le Havre 0.8 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Marseille 68%, draw 18%, Le Havre 14%.
Lower-risk option: Marseille or draw (86%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.60.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Marseille to win (68%, odds 1.55 – longer than our fair 1.47, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Marseille 2–0 Le Havre. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Marseille68%fair 1.47 · @1.55
Draw18%fair 5.48 · @4.40
Le Havre14%fair 7.34 · @4.80
2.86Expected goals
2.08Marseille xG
0.78Le Havre xG
58%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–17%
From our goals model: Marseille 2.1 – 0.8 Le Havre expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marseille to win✓
68%
1.47
1.55 ▲
Double chance
Marseille or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.71
1.60
Draw no bet
Marseille (draw no bet)✓
83%
1.20
–
Asian handicap
Marseille -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
84%
1.19
–
First team to score
Marseille to score first✓
69%
1.46
–
Half-time result
Marseille ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marseille / FT Marseille✓
44%
2.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.34
–
Recent results
Marseille – last 6
LWLWLL
22 Oct
@ Sturm Graz
0–1
L
18 Oct
@ Angers
5–2
W
15 Oct
vs Olympiakos Piraeus
0–1
L
11 Oct
@ Estac Troyes
2–0
W
20 Sep
vs Paris Saint Germain
1–2
L
17 Sep
@ Beşiktaş
1–4
L
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Le Havre – last 6
LLLDLD
18 Oct
vs Auxerre
1–3
L
10 Oct
@ Lille
0–1
L
19 Sep
@ Toulouse
2–3
L
12 Sep
vs Angers
0–0
D
5 Sep
vs Stade Brestois 29
1–2
L
29 Aug
@ Lyon
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marseille and Le Havre.
Our pick is Marseille to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Marseille vs Le Havre?
On our numbers Marseille have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Le Havre 14%.
How many goals will there be in Marseille vs Le Havre?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marseille vs Le Havre?
Our predicted score is Marseille 2–0 Le Havre, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Marseille vs Le Havre?
Marseille vs Le Havre (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Orange Vélodrome.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
