Value bet: Lille to win @ 3.50 – our chance 35% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMonaco to win ✗43% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.69
Monaco vs Lille: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Monaco welcome Lille to Stade Louis II for a Ligue 1 fixture on Sunday 25 October (15:00 WAT). In the table, Monaco are 7th, upper half, on 16 points after 10 matches; Lille are 2nd (among the top four) with 21.
Current form
Monaco, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over SC Freiburg, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Lille, last 5: LDLWW Their latest outing: 2–4 defeat to Galatasaray, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Monaco, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Lille.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Monaco 1.2 xG, Lille 1.0 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 38%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Monaco 43%, draw 22%, Lille 35%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Lille to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (57%, odds 1.70). Most likely score in line with that pick: Monaco 1–1 Lille. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Monaco43%fair 2.34 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.30
Lille35%fair 2.86 · @3.50
2.21Expected goals
1.18Monaco xG
1.03Lille xG
57%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–111%
0–011%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Monaco 1.2 – 1.0 Lille expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monaco to win✗
43%
2.34
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.70
Draw no bet
Monaco (draw no bet)
55%
1.82
–
Asian handicap
Lille +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Monaco to score first✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monaco / FT Monaco✗
22%
4.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.69
–
Recent results
Monaco – last 6
WLWDWD
22 Oct
vs SC Freiburg
3–0
W
18 Oct
@ Lorient
0–1
L
15 Oct
@ CSKA Sofia
2–1
W
10 Oct
vs Toulouse
2–2
D
18 Sep
vs Lens
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Strasbourg
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Lille – last 6
LDLWWL
21 Oct
vs Galatasaray
2–4
L
17 Oct
vs Stade Brestois 29
1–1
D
13 Oct
@ Arsenal
0–3
L
10 Oct
vs Le Havre
1–0
W
2 Oct
vs Zulte Waregem
2–1
W
20 Sep
@ Nice
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monaco and Lille.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Monaco vs Lille?
On our numbers Monaco have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Lille 35%.
How many goals will there be in Monaco vs Lille?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monaco vs Lille?
Our predicted score is Monaco 1–1 Lille, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Monaco vs Lille?
Monaco vs Lille (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Louis II.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
