Value bet: Tropezón to win @ 3.00 – our chance 42% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultTropezón to win ✗42% · @3.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓72% · fair 1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗17% · fair 5.83
Arnedo vs Tropezón: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Tropezón travel to face Arnedo on Saturday 20 June in the Tercera División RFEF Promotion Play Offs – the ball rolls at 18:00 WAT.
Current form
Arnedo, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Tropezón, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Tropezón, last 5: WDWDD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Arnedo, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (13 Jun 2026) it ended Tropezón 1–0 Arnedo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Arnedo 0.8 xG, Tropezón 1.1 xG – a total near 1.8. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 72%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Arnedo 30%, draw 28%, Tropezón 42%.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Tropezón to win @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (52%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arnedo 0–1 Tropezón. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Arnedo30%fair 3.29 · @2.30
Draw28%fair 3.60 · @2.80
Tropezón42%fair 2.39 · @3.00
1.82Expected goals
0.76Arnedo xG
1.06Tropezón xG
48%Both score
28%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–117%
0–016%
1–113%
1–012%
0–29%
1–27%
From our goals model: Arnedo 0.8 – 1.1 Tropezón expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Arnedo vs Tropezón?
On our numbers Arnedo have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Tropezón 42%.
How many goals will there be in Arnedo vs Tropezón?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arnedo vs Tropezón?
Our predicted score is Arnedo 0–1 Tropezón, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Arnedo vs Tropezón?
Arnedo vs Tropezón (Tercera División RFEF Promotion Play Offs) kicks off on Saturday 20 June 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tercera División RFEF Promotion Play Offs · Spain
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