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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Lokomotiv v Spartak Moscow: numbers & prediction

Friendlies Clubs · World

Lokomotiv

WDLDD
2–0
FT

Spartak Moscow

DWWDW
Lokomotiv 39%Draw 25%Spartak Moscow 36% Expected goals 1.56 – 1.26
76%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.31 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.20Odds
1

Value bet: Lokomotiv to win @ 2.98 – our chance 39% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultLokomotiv to win ✓39% · @2.98
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.96

Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

18:00 WAT, Saturday 11 July: Lokomotiv v Spartak Moscow in the Friendlies Clubs.

Current form

Lokomotiv, last 5: WDLDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Spartak Kostroma, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Spartak Moscow, last 5: DWWDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Rubin, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Spartak Moscow, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.5 for Lokomotiv.

Head to head

When they last met (5 Apr 2026) it ended Spartak Moscow 2–1 Lokomotiv.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Lokomotiv 1.6 xG, Spartak Moscow 1.3 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Lokomotiv 39%, draw 25%, Spartak Moscow 36%.
  • GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.60.
  • Price worth noting: Lokomotiv to win @2.98 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 39%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lokomotiv 1–1 Spartak Moscow. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Lokomotiv39%fair 2.58 · @2.98
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @3.34
Spartak Moscow36%fair 2.79 · @2.29
2.82Expected goals
1.56Lokomotiv xG
1.26Spartak Moscow xG
60%Both score
53%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–27%
2–07%

From our goals model: Lokomotiv 1.6 – 1.3 Spartak Moscow expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

LokomotivSpartak Moscow
Attack vs Friendlies Clubs average+3%-4%
Goals conceded vs average-34%-10%
Our expected goals here1.611.02

Our own ratings from every Friendlies Clubs result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultLokomotiv to win ✓39%2.582.98 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75%1.341.30
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗60%1.671.60
Draw no betLokomotiv (draw no bet) ✓52%1.92–
Asian handicapSpartak Moscow +1 (Asian handicap) ✗72%1.40–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76%1.311.20
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗53%1.881.79
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓68%1.461.33
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓84%1.191.09
First team to scoreLokomotiv to score first ✓52%1.93–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓41%2.44–
Half-time / full-timeHT Lokomotiv / FT Lokomotiv ✗26%3.80–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%10.96–

Recent results

Lokomotiv – last 6

WDLDDW
3 Julvs Spartak Kostroma2–0W
27 Junvs Rodina Moskva0–0D
17 May@ CSKA Moscow1–3L
1 Mayvs Dynamo1–1D
22 Aprvs Zenit0–0D
18 Apr@ FC Orenburg1–0W
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Spartak Moscow – last 6

DWWDWW
8 Julvs Rubin0–0D
4 Julvs Krylia Sovetov3–2W
2 Julvs Spartak Kostroma1–0W
17 May@ Dinamo Makhachkala0–0D
11 Mayvs Rubin2–1W
6 Mayvs CSKA Moscow1–0W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

5 Apr 2026Spartak Moscow v Lokomotiv2–1
Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow head-to-head page →

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FT Humenné0 FK Košice1 124%5.80X21%4.40255%1.44 1.6–2.1xG GGBoth teams to score 65%@1.62 ✗
FT Podbrezová0 Petržalka3 154%1.44X23%4.00224%5.50 2.1–1.6xG GGBoth teams to score 66%@1.57 ✗
FT Wisla Plock2 Baník Ostrava2 158%1.55X24%3.60218%5.50 1.8–1.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.28 ✓
FT Vlašim4 Králův Dvůr0 157%1.40X23%4.20220%6.50 2.5–1.7xG GGBoth teams to score 67%@1.60 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow?

On our numbers Lokomotiv have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Spartak Moscow 36%.

How many goals will there be in Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow?

Our predicted score is Lokomotiv 1–1 Spartak Moscow, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow?

Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.