Value bet: Sagamihara to win @ 2.90 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMatsumoto Yamaga to win ✗39% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.55
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 13 September the J3 League brings Matsumoto Yamaga against Sagamihara at Sunpro Alwin. Kick-off: 10:00 WAT. In the table, Matsumoto Yamaga are 15th, lower half, on 17 points after 16 matches; Sagamihara are 3rd (among the top four) with 31. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Matsumoto Yamaga, last 5: DDDDL Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Shonan Bellmare, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Sagamihara, last 5: DLLWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Parceiro Nagano, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Matsumoto Yamaga 1.2 xG, Sagamihara 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Matsumoto Yamaga 39%, draw 24%, Sagamihara 37%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Sagamihara to win @2.90 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (57%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Matsumoto Yamaga 1–1 Sagamihara. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Matsumoto Yamaga39%fair 2.57 · @2.30
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @2.90
Sagamihara37%fair 2.71 · @2.90
2.40Expected goals
1.22Matsumoto Yamaga xG
1.18Sagamihara xG
57%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Matsumoto Yamaga 1.2 – 1.2 Sagamihara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Matsumoto Yamaga to win✗
39%
2.57
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.75
Draw no bet
Matsumoto Yamaga (draw no bet)✗
51%
1.95
–
Asian handicap
Sagamihara +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Matsumoto Yamaga to score first
46%
2.16
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Matsumoto Yamaga / FT Matsumoto Yamaga✗
21%
4.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.55
–
Recent results
Matsumoto Yamaga – last 6
DDDDLD
9 Sep
vs Shonan Bellmare
3–3
D
5 Sep
vs Osaka
0–0
D
30 Aug
@ Kitakyushu
1–1
D
22 Aug
vs Ehime FC
2–2
D
16 Aug
vs Biwako Shiga
2–3
L
8 Aug
@ Kochi United
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sagamihara – last 6
DLLWWD
5 Sep
vs Parceiro Nagano
1–1
D
2 Sep
vs Jubilo Iwata
0–3
L
29 Aug
@ FC Ryukyu
1–2
L
23 Aug
vs Kanazawa
2–1
W
15 Aug
@ Thespakusatsu Gunma
4–1
W
8 Aug
vs Roasso Kumamoto
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Matsumoto Yamaga and Sagamihara.
What is the prediction for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara?
On our numbers Matsumoto Yamaga have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sagamihara 37%.
How many goals will there be in Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara?
Our predicted score is Matsumoto Yamaga 1–1 Sagamihara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara?
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara (J3 League) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 10:00 (West Africa Time) at Sunpro Alwin.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
