JEF United Chiba v V-varen Nagasaki Prediction & Expected Goals (11 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultV-varen Nagasaki to win ✗41% · @2.45

Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.33

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.67

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.45

JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

V-varen Nagasaki travel to face JEF United Chiba on Sunday 11 October in the J1 League, with Fukuda Denshi Arena the venue – the ball rolls at 06:00 WAT. In the table, JEF United Chiba are 10th, in the drop zone, on 12 points after 18 matches; V-varen Nagasaki are 9th (in the drop zone) with 21.

Current form

JEF United Chiba, last 5: LLLDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Fagiano Okayama, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

V-varen Nagasaki, last 5: DLDWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Shimizu S-pulse, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give JEF United Chiba 1.5 xG, V-varen Nagasaki 1.6 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 61% and GG at 61%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – JEF United Chiba 35%, draw 23%, V-varen Nagasaki 41%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.67.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (61%, odds 1.67). Most likely score in line with that pick: JEF United Chiba 1–1 V-varen Nagasaki. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

JEF United Chiba35%fair 2.82 · @2.70

Draw23%fair 4.33 · @3.10

V-varen Nagasaki41%fair 2.41 · @2.45

3.13Expected goals

1.50JEF United Chiba xG

1.63V-varen Nagasaki xG

61%Both score

61%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%

1–29%

2–18%

0–17%

1–07%

2–27%

From our goals model: JEF United Chiba 1.5 – 1.6 V-varen Nagasaki expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	V-varen Nagasaki to win ✗	41%	2.41	2.45
Double chance	Either team to win ✗	77%	1.30	1.33
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	61%	1.65	1.67
Draw no bet	V-varen Nagasaki (draw no bet)	54%	1.86	–
Asian handicap	JEF United Chiba +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	74%	1.35	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	82%	1.22	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	61%	1.65	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	62%	1.62	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	79%	1.26	–
First team to score	V-varen Nagasaki to score first ✗	50%	2.00	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	39%	2.59	–
Half-time / full-time	HT V-varen Nagasaki / FT V-varen Nagasaki ✗	25%	4.07	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	9%	11.45	–

JEF United Chiba – last 6

LLLDWW

7 Oct	@ Fagiano Okayama	0–1	L
29 Sep	@ Jubilo Iwata	2–4	L
19 Sep	@ Shimizu S-pulse	1–2	L
13 Sep	@ Tokyo Verdy	1–1	D
9 Sep	@ Kamatamare Sanuki	2–0	W
6 Sep	vs Gamba Osaka	2–0	W

1.3Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

50%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

V-varen Nagasaki – last 6

DLDWWL

7 Oct	@ Shimizu S-pulse	1–1	D
29 Sep	@ Gainare Tottori	0–2	L
19 Sep	vs Cerezo Osaka	1–1	D
12 Sep	vs Nagoya Grampus	2–0	W
9 Sep	@ Kochi United	1–0	W
6 Sep	@ Vissel Kobe	1–3	L

1.0Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

50%Both scored

17%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Kashima	18	15	3	+20	45
2	FC Tokyo	18	13	5	+14	37
3	Machida Zelvia	18	13	5	+6	37
4	Kawasaki Frontale	18	10	8	-2	28
5	Tokyo Verdy	18	10	8	-4	28
6	Urawa	18	7	11	+3	25
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	18	6	12	-3	20
8	Kashiwa Reysol	18	7	11	-2	20
9	Mito Hollyhock	18	6	12	-16	18
10	JEF United Chiba	18	3	15	-16	12

Team

Pts

+20

+14

-2

-4

-3

-2

-16

-16

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.

Who will win JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki?

On our numbers JEF United Chiba have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 23% and V-varen Nagasaki 41%.

How many goals will there be in JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki?

We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki?

Our predicted score is JEF United Chiba 1–1 V-varen Nagasaki, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.

When is JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki?

JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki (J1 League) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at Fukuda Denshi Arena.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

JEF United Chiba v V-varen Nagasaki: numbers & prediction