Tokyo Verdy 16%Draw 21%Sanfrecce Hiroshima 63%Expected goals 0.78 – 1.85
63%
Betarazi pick
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
Picks by market
ResultSanfrecce Hiroshima to win ✓63% · @1.44
Double chanceSanfrecce Hiroshima or draw ✓84% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.39
Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
07:00 WAT, Sunday 11 October: Tokyo Verdy v Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the J1 League, played at Ajinomoto Stadium. In the table, Tokyo Verdy are 5th, upper half, on 28 points after 18 matches; Sanfrecce Hiroshima are 4th (among the top four) with 30. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Tokyo Verdy, last 5: DDLDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Gainare Tottori, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Iwaki, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 3.0 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.2 for Tokyo Verdy.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tokyo Verdy 0.8 xG, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.8 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tokyo Verdy 16%, draw 21%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 63%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win (63%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tokyo Verdy 0–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tokyo Verdy16%fair 6.40 · @6.00
Draw21%fair 4.70 · @4.20
Sanfrecce Hiroshima63%fair 1.59 · @1.44
2.63Expected goals
0.78Tokyo Verdy xG
1.85Sanfrecce Hiroshima xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
0–07%
From our goals model: Tokyo Verdy 0.8 – 1.8 Sanfrecce Hiroshima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win✓
63%
1.59
1.44
Double chance
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.80
1.80
Draw no bet
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score first✓
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Sanfrecce Hiroshima ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sanfrecce Hiroshima / FT Sanfrecce Hiroshima✗
40%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.39
–
Recent results
Tokyo Verdy – last 6
DDLDWD
7 Oct
@ Gainare Tottori
0–0
D
29 Sep
@ Sagan Tosu
1–1
D
19 Sep
@ Urawa
1–3
L
13 Sep
vs JEF United Chiba
1–1
D
9 Sep
@ Biwako Shiga
1–0
W
6 Sep
@ Cerezo Osaka
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Sanfrecce Hiroshima – last 6
WWWWLW
7 Oct
vs Iwaki
4–0
W
29 Sep
@ Tochigi City
2–0
W
19 Sep
@ Avispa Fukuoka
1–0
W
12 Sep
vs Cerezo Osaka
6–1
W
6 Sep
@ Fagiano Okayama
2–3
L
2 Sep
vs Nagoya Grampus
3–0
W
3.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tokyo Verdy and Sanfrecce Hiroshima.
What is the prediction for Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Our pick is Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
On our numbers Tokyo Verdy have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Sanfrecce Hiroshima 63%.
How many goals will there be in Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Our predicted score is Tokyo Verdy 0–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (J1 League) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 07:00 (West Africa Time) at Ajinomoto Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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