Stenhousemuir vs Morton: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Stenhousemuir welcome Morton to Ochilview Park for a Championship fixture on Saturday 8 August (15:00 WAT). In the table, Stenhousemuir are 4th, among the top four, on 23 points after 14 matches; Morton are 9th (in the drop zone) with 13.
Current form
Stenhousemuir, last 5: DDDWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Raith Rovers, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Morton, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Partick, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.0 goals a game.
Momentum favours Stenhousemuir, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.2 for Morton.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Stenhousemuir 1.4 xG, Morton 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Stenhousemuir 46%, draw 24%, Morton 30%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.73.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Stenhousemuir 1–1 Morton. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Stenhousemuir46%fair 2.19 · @1.98
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.35
Morton30%fair 3.31 · @3.50
2.50Expected goals
1.43Stenhousemuir xG
1.07Morton xG
55%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Stenhousemuir 1.4 – 1.1 Morton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Stenhousemuir
Morton
Attack vs Championship average
+1%
+19%
Goals conceded vs average
+5%
+43%
Our expected goals here
1.83
1.34
Our own ratings from every Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Stenhousemuir to win✓
46%
2.19
1.98
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
1.73
Draw no bet
Stenhousemuir (draw no bet)✓
60%
1.66
–
Asian handicap
Morton +1 (Asian handicap)✗
72%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Stenhousemuir to score first✓
52%
1.91
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Stenhousemuir / FT Stenhousemuir✗
27%
3.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.16
–
Recent results
Stenhousemuir – last 6
DDDWWW
1 Aug
@ Raith Rovers
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Livingston
0–0
D
21 Jul
@ Partick
2–2
D
18 Jul
@ Brechin
2–1
W
11 Jul
vs Forfar Athletic
2–0
W
13 May
@ Alloa Athletic
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Morton – last 6
LLLLLD
1 Aug
vs Partick
0–1
L
25 Jul
vs Inverness CT
0–1
L
18 Jul
@ ST Johnstone
0–3
L
14 Jul
@ East Fife
0–2
L
11 Jul
vs Linlithgow Rose
0–1
L
4 Jul
vs Stranraer
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Stenhousemuir and Morton.
What is the prediction for Stenhousemuir vs Morton?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Stenhousemuir vs Morton?
On our numbers Stenhousemuir have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Morton 30%.
How many goals will there be in Stenhousemuir vs Morton?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Stenhousemuir vs Morton?
Our predicted score is Stenhousemuir 1–1 Morton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Stenhousemuir vs Morton?
Stenhousemuir vs Morton (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Ochilview Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
