Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.80 – our chance 59% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLivingston to win ✓62% · @1.71
Double chanceLivingston or draw ✓87% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.64
Livingston vs Dunfermline: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Livingston welcome Dunfermline to The Home of the Set Fare Arena for a Championship fixture on Saturday 22 August (15:00 WAT). In the table, Livingston are 5th, upper half, on 21 points after 14 matches; Dunfermline are 3rd (among the top four) with 25.
Current form
Livingston, last 5: LWDWD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Partick, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Dunfermline, last 5: LDDWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Ross County, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Livingston 1.5 xG, Dunfermline 0.5 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Livingston 62%, draw 25%, Dunfermline 13%.
Lower-risk option: Livingston or draw (87%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Livingston 1–0 Dunfermline. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Livingston62%fair 1.62 · @1.71
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.55
Dunfermline13%fair 7.67 · @4.50
2.05Expected goals
1.52Livingston xG
0.54Dunfermline xG
52%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–019%
2–015%
0–013%
1–110%
2–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: Livingston 1.5 – 0.5 Dunfermline expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Livingston to win✓
62%
1.62
1.71 ▲
Double chance
Livingston or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.80
Draw no bet
Livingston (draw no bet)✓
83%
1.21
–
Asian handicap
Livingston -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.80 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.06
–
First team to score
Livingston to score first✓
64%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Livingston / FT Livingston✓
37%
2.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.64
–
Recent results
Livingston – last 6
LWDWDW
7 Aug
@ Partick
0–2
L
1 Aug
vs Queen's Park
2–0
W
25 Jul
@ Stenhousemuir
0–0
D
21 Jul
vs Forfar Athletic
8–0
W
18 Jul
vs Partick
1–1
D
14 Jul
@ Brechin
2–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Dunfermline – last 6
LDDWWW
15 Aug
vs Ross County
1–2
L
8 Aug
vs Ayr Utd
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Inverness CT
0–0
D
26 Jul
@ ST Mirren
1–0
W
21 Jul
vs Cove Rangers
5–0
W
14 Jul
vs Dumbarton
4–1
W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Livingston and Dunfermline.
What is the prediction for Livingston vs Dunfermline?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Livingston vs Dunfermline?
On our numbers Livingston have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Dunfermline 13%.
How many goals will there be in Livingston vs Dunfermline?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Livingston vs Dunfermline?
Our predicted score is Livingston 1–0 Dunfermline, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Livingston vs Dunfermline?
Livingston vs Dunfermline (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at The Home of the Set Fare Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
