Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Morton to win @ 3.05 – our chance 39% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMorton to win ✗39% · @3.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗6% · fair 15.98
Morton vs Arbroath: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Saturday 22 August: Morton v Arbroath in the Championship, played at Cappielow Park. In the table, Morton are 9th, in the drop zone, on 13 points after 13 matches; Arbroath are 8th (in the drop zone) with 14. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Morton, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Stenhousemuir, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.0 goals a game.
Arbroath, last 5: DLWLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Inverness CT, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Arbroath, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.0 for Morton.
Head to head
When they last met (28 Mar 2026) it ended Morton 2–1 Arbroath.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Morton 0.9 xG, Arbroath 0.9 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Morton 39%, draw 22%, Arbroath 39%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Morton to win @3.05 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (82%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Morton 0–0 Arbroath. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Morton39%fair 2.57 · @3.05
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.30
Arbroath39%fair 2.58 · @2.18
1.86Expected goals
0.93Morton xG
0.93Arbroath xG
53%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–016%
1–015%
0–114%
1–113%
2–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Morton 0.9 – 0.9 Arbroath expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Morton vs Arbroath?
On our numbers Morton have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Arbroath 39%.
How many goals will there be in Morton vs Arbroath?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Morton vs Arbroath?
Our predicted score is Morton 0–0 Arbroath, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Morton vs Arbroath?
Morton vs Arbroath (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Cappielow Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
