Ayr Utd vs Morton: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Ayr Utd welcome Morton to Somerset Park for a Championship fixture on Saturday 29 August (15:00 WAT). In the table, Ayr Utd are 7th, lower half, on 15 points after 13 matches; Morton are 9th (in the drop zone) with 13. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Ayr Utd, last 5: LLDWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Raith Rovers, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Morton, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Arbroath, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game.
Momentum favours Ayr Utd, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.0 for Morton.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ayr Utd 1.5 xG, Morton 0.7 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ayr Utd 59%, draw 21%, Morton 20%.
Lower-risk option: Ayr Utd or draw (80%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ayr Utd 1–0 Morton. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ayr Utd59%fair 1.70 · @1.71
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.55
Morton20%fair 4.93 · @4.45
2.30Expected goals
1.55Ayr Utd xG
0.75Morton xG
52%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–012%
1–112%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Ayr Utd 1.5 – 0.7 Morton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ayr Utd to win✗
59%
1.70
1.71
Double chance
Ayr Utd or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.85
Draw no bet
Ayr Utd (draw no bet)
74%
1.34
–
Asian handicap
Morton +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Ayr Utd to score first✓
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ayr Utd / FT Ayr Utd✗
34%
2.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.08
–
Recent results
Ayr Utd – last 6
LLDWWW
22 Aug
@ Raith Rovers
0–2
L
14 Aug
@ Kilmarnock
2–3
L
8 Aug
@ Dunfermline
1–1
D
1 Aug
vs Arbroath
2–0
W
25 Jul
vs Alloa Athletic
4–1
W
18 Jul
vs Edinburgh City
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Morton – last 6
LLLLLL
22 Aug
vs Arbroath
1–2
L
8 Aug
@ Stenhousemuir
0–2
L
1 Aug
vs Partick
0–1
L
25 Jul
vs Inverness CT
0–1
L
18 Jul
@ ST Johnstone
0–3
L
14 Jul
@ East Fife
0–2
L
0.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ayr Utd and Morton.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Ayr Utd vs Morton?
On our numbers Ayr Utd have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Morton 20%.
How many goals will there be in Ayr Utd vs Morton?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ayr Utd vs Morton?
Our predicted score is Ayr Utd 1–0 Morton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Ayr Utd vs Morton?
Ayr Utd vs Morton (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Somerset Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
