Unia Skierniewice 41%Draw 33%Stal Mielec 26%Expected goals 1.90 – 1.46
81%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.50 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultUnia Skierniewice to win ✗41% · @2.05
Double chanceUnia Skierniewice or draw ✗74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓67% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.93
Unia Skierniewice vs Stal Mielec: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Stal Mielec travel to face Unia Skierniewice on Sunday 26 July in the I Liga, with Stadion Miejski the venue – the ball rolls at 16:00 WAT. In the table, Unia Skierniewice are 17th, in the drop zone, on 14 points after 14 matches; Stal Mielec are 11th (lower half) with 19.
Current form
Unia Skierniewice, last 5: WDLWL Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Kalisz, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Stal Mielec, last 5: LWLWL Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Puszcza Niepołomice, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Unia Skierniewice 1.9 xG, Stal Mielec 1.5 xG – a total near 3.4. That is an open game on paper: 61% for three or more goals, 67% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Unia Skierniewice 41%, draw 33%, Stal Mielec 26%.
Lower-risk option: Unia Skierniewice or draw (74%) at 1.30.
GG/NG: GG (67%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (81%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Unia Skierniewice 1–1 Stal Mielec. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Unia Skierniewice41%fair 2.41 · @2.05
Draw33%fair 3.04 · @3.50
Stal Mielec26%fair 3.88 · @3.00
3.36Expected goals
1.90Unia Skierniewice xG
1.46Stal Mielec xG
67%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–19%
1–27%
2–27%
1–07%
2–06%
From our goals model: Unia Skierniewice 1.9 – 1.5 Stal Mielec expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Unia Skierniewice to win✗
41%
2.41
2.05
Double chance
Unia Skierniewice or draw✗
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
67%
1.50
1.53
Draw no bet
Unia Skierniewice (draw no bet)✗
62%
1.62
–
Asian handicap
Stal Mielec +1 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.45
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
First team to score
Unia Skierniewice to score first✗
55%
1.83
–
Half-time result
Unia Skierniewice ahead at half-time✗
37%
2.68
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Unia Skierniewice / FT Unia Skierniewice✗
30%
3.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.93
–
Recent results
Unia Skierniewice – last 6
WDLWLL
18 Jul
vs Kalisz
4–0
W
11 Jul
@ ŁKS Łódź
2–2
D
4 Jul
vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0–1
L
27 Jun
@ Pogoń Siedlce
3–0
W
30 May
@ Kalisz
1–2
L
22 May
vs Chojniczanka Chojnice
2–3
L
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Stal Mielec – last 6
LWLWLW
11 Jul
vs Puszcza Niepołomice
1–4
L
4 Jul
vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1–0
W
1 Jul
vs Podhale Nowy Targ
1–5
L
24 May
vs Polonia Bytom
4–1
W
17 Apr
@ Chrobry Głogów
1–2
L
6 Apr
@ Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Unia Skierniewice and Stal Mielec.
What is the prediction for Unia Skierniewice vs Stal Mielec?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Unia Skierniewice vs Stal Mielec?
On our numbers Unia Skierniewice have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 33% and Stal Mielec 26%.
How many goals will there be in Unia Skierniewice vs Stal Mielec?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Unia Skierniewice vs Stal Mielec?
Our predicted score is Unia Skierniewice 1–1 Stal Mielec, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Unia Skierniewice vs Stal Mielec?
Unia Skierniewice vs Stal Mielec (I Liga) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Miejski.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
