Good pick · fair odds 1.67 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
1
Value bet: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win @ 3.10 – our chance 38% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPolonia Warszawa to win ✓39% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.88
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Polonia Warszawa travel to face Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki on Saturday 17 October in the I Liga, with Stadion Miejski the venue – the ball rolls at 14:30 WAT. In the table, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are 7th, upper half, on 21 points after 14 matches; Polonia Warszawa are 1st (leading the league) with 25.
Current form
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, last 5: WLWLW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Chrobry Głogów, away. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Polonia Warszawa, last 5: WWWDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Arka Gdynia, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Polonia Warszawa, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.5 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.4 xG, Polonia Warszawa 1.4 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 38%, draw 22%, Polonia Warszawa 39%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.57.
Price worth noting: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (60%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1–1 Polonia Warszawa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki38%fair 2.60 · @3.10
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.25
Polonia Warszawa39%fair 2.55 · @2.10
2.85Expected goals
1.42Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki xG
1.43Polonia Warszawa xG
60%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–28%
2–18%
0–18%
1–08%
2–26%
From our goals model: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.4 – 1.4 Polonia Warszawa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Polonia Warszawa to win✓
39%
2.55
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.57
Draw no bet
Polonia Warszawa (draw no bet)✓
50%
1.98
–
Asian handicap
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
First team to score
Polonia Warszawa to score first✓
47%
2.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Polonia Warszawa / FT Polonia Warszawa✗
22%
4.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.88
–
Recent results
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki – last 6
WLWLWL
10 Oct
@ Chrobry Głogów
4–0
W
2 Oct
@ Radomiak Radom
2–7
L
19 Sep
vs ŁKS Łódź
2–0
W
13 Sep
@ Unia Skierniewice
2–3
L
4 Sep
vs Warta Poznań
1–0
W
1 Sep
@ Podhale Nowy Targ
1–3
L
2.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Polonia Warszawa – last 6
WWWDLW
10 Oct
@ Arka Gdynia
2–1
W
3 Oct
@ Jagiellonia
2–1
W
19 Sep
vs Chrobry Głogów
2–0
W
11 Sep
vs Polonia Bytom
2–2
D
5 Sep
@ Stal Rzeszów
1–2
L
2 Sep
@ Górnik Polkowice
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Polonia Warszawa.
What is the prediction for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa?
On our numbers Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Polonia Warszawa 39%.
How many goals will there be in Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa?
Our predicted score is Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1–1 Polonia Warszawa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa?
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa (I Liga) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Miejski.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
