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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Kaluga v Iskra Smolensk: numbers & prediction

Cup · Russia

Kaluga

DLLDW
5–0
FT

Iskra Smolensk

LDLLL
Kaluga 64%Draw 22%Iskra Smolensk 13% Expected goals 1.95 – 0.90
75%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.25Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.45 – our chance 53% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +31%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultKaluga to win ✓64% · @1.27
Double chanceKaluga or draw ✓87% · fair 1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.45
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.10

Kaluga vs Iskra Smolensk: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Iskra Smolensk travel to face Kaluga on Wednesday 12 August in the Cup – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT.

Current form

Kaluga, last 5: DLLDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Rodina Moskva II, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Iskra Smolensk, last 5: LDLLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Kosmos Dolgoprudny, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Momentum favours Kaluga, collecting 0.8 points per game to 0.3 for Iskra Smolensk.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Kaluga 2.0 xG, Iskra Smolensk 0.9 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 53%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Kaluga 64%, draw 22%, Iskra Smolensk 13%.
  • GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.45.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.45 – the bookmaker implies 41%, our ratings say 53%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Kaluga 2–0 Iskra Smolensk. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Kaluga64%fair 1.55 · @1.27
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @4.15
Iskra Smolensk13%fair 7.56 · @12.25
2.85Expected goals
1.95Kaluga xG
0.90Iskra Smolensk xG
53%Both score
52%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%

From our goals model: Kaluga 2.0 – 0.9 Iskra Smolensk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultKaluga to win ✓64%1.551.27
Double chanceKaluga or draw ✓87%1.15–
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗53%1.872.45 ▲
Draw no betKaluga (draw no bet) ✓83%1.21–
Asian handicapKaluga -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓62%1.61–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75%1.331.25
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓52%1.921.85
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗69%1.461.31
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗84%1.191.08
First team to scoreKaluga to score first ✓65%1.55–
Half-time resultKaluga ahead at half-time ✓45%2.23–
Half-time / full-timeHT Kaluga / FT Kaluga ✓39%2.53–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.10–

Recent results

Kaluga – last 6

DLLDWL
8 Augvs Rodina Moskva II0–0D
2 Aug@ Dinamo Kirov0–1L
26 Julvs Novosibirsk0–1L
19 Jul@ FK Sokol Saratov1–1D
13 Junvs Mashuk-KMV3–0W
7 Jun@ Novosibirsk0–1L
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Iskra Smolensk – last 6

LDLLLD
8 Aug@ Kosmos Dolgoprudny0–1L
1 Augvs Dinamo St. Petersburg1–1D
26 Jul@ Cherepovets1–2L
4 Julvs Tver2–4L
21 Jun@ Murom0–6L
13 Junvs Luki-Energiya1–1D
0.8Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Kaluga and Iskra Smolensk.

Kaluga vs Iskra Smolensk head-to-head page →

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FT Znamya Noginsk2 Dinamo Bryansk0 112%4.45X26%3.45263%1.68 1.2–2.5xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 79%@1.32 ✓
FT Astrakhan1 Mashuk-KMV1 Pens 4–3 122%4.60X26%3.48252%1.65 0.9–1.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 74%@1.28 ✓
FT Strogino0 Torpedo Vladimir3 135%2.25X38%3.02227%3.00 1.3–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Kaluga vs Iskra Smolensk?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Kaluga vs Iskra Smolensk?

On our numbers Kaluga have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Iskra Smolensk 13%.

How many goals will there be in Kaluga vs Iskra Smolensk?

We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Kaluga vs Iskra Smolensk?

Our predicted score is Kaluga 2–0 Iskra Smolensk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.

When is Kaluga vs Iskra Smolensk?

Kaluga vs Iskra Smolensk (Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 12 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.