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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Avangard Kursk v Kristall MEZ: numbers & prediction

Cup · Russia

Avangard Kursk

DLLLW
1–1
FTPens 5–4

Kristall MEZ

W
Avangard Kursk 28%Draw 52%Kristall MEZ 20% Expected goals 1.55 – 1.36
80%
Betarazi pick

Avangard Kursk or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.28Odds
X

Value bet: Draw @ 3.25 – our chance 52% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +67%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultDraw ✓52% · @3.25
Double chanceAvangard Kursk or draw ✓80% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.59
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–2 ✗6% · fair 16.53

Avangard Kursk vs Kristall MEZ: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Avangard Kursk welcome Kristall MEZ for a Cup fixture on Wednesday 12 August (11:00 WAT).

Current form

Avangard Kursk, last 5: DLLLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Arsenal Tula II, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Avangard Kursk 1.5 xG, Kristall MEZ 1.4 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 55% and GG at 63%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Avangard Kursk 28%, draw 52%, Kristall MEZ 20%.
  • Lower-risk option: Avangard Kursk or draw (80%) at 1.28.
  • GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.59.
  • Price worth noting: Draw @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 52%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Avangard Kursk or draw (80%, odds 1.28 – longer than our fair 1.25, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Avangard Kursk 1–1 Kristall MEZ. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Avangard Kursk28%fair 3.51 · @2.12
Draw52%fair 1.94 · @3.25
Kristall MEZ20%fair 5.00 · @3.02
2.91Expected goals
1.55Avangard Kursk xG
1.36Kristall MEZ xG
63%Both score
55%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–17%
2–07%

From our goals model: Avangard Kursk 1.5 – 1.4 Kristall MEZ expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultDraw ✓52%1.943.25 ▲
Double chanceAvangard Kursk or draw ✓80%1.251.28
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓63%1.591.59
Draw no betAvangard Kursk (draw no bet)59%1.70–
Asian handicapKristall MEZ +1 (Asian handicap) ✓74%1.36–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77%1.301.20
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗55%1.831.73
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓66%1.511.37
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓82%1.221.11
First team to scoreAvangard Kursk to score first50%1.99–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓40%2.48–
Half-time / full-timeHT Avangard Kursk / FT Avangard Kursk ✗25%4.02–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–2 ✗6%16.53–

Recent results

Avangard Kursk – last 6

DLLLWL
9 Aug@ Arsenal Tula II1–1D
1 Augvs Strogino1–3L
25 Julvs SKA Khabarovsk II1–2L
4 Julvs FK Spartak Tambov0–2L
27 Junvs Saturn Ramenskoye6–3W
20 Jun@ Volna Nizhegorodskaya0–2L
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Kristall MEZ – last 1

W
28 Julvs Salyut-Belgorod3–0W
3.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Avangard Kursk and Kristall MEZ.

Avangard Kursk vs Kristall MEZ head-to-head page →

More Cup predictions

League hub
FT Volna Nizhegorodskaya2 Tyumen1 146%2.38X25%3.14229%2.70 1.6–1.0xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 71%@1.32 ✓
FT Zvezda St. Petersburg1 Luki-Energiya2 128%3.48X25%3.15247%1.98 1.2–1.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 73%@1.31 ✓
FT Dinamo Barnaul0 Dinamo Vladivostok0 Pens 4–3 123%4.55X25%3.82252%1.59 1.1–1.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 72%@1.28 ✓
FT Angust Nazran0 Druzhba0 Pens 2–4 126%2.83X28%3.08246%2.32 0.8–1.3xG X2Druzhba or draw 74%@1.33 ✓
FT Znamya Noginsk2 Dinamo Bryansk0 112%4.45X26%3.45263%1.68 1.2–2.5xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 79%@1.32 ✓
FT Kaluga5 Iskra Smolensk0 164%1.27X22%4.15213%12.25 2.0–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.25 ✓
FT Astrakhan1 Mashuk-KMV1 Pens 4–3 122%4.60X26%3.48252%1.65 0.9–1.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 74%@1.28 ✓
FT Strogino0 Torpedo Vladimir3 135%2.25X38%3.02227%3.00 1.3–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Avangard Kursk vs Kristall MEZ?

Our pick is Avangard Kursk or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.

Who will win Avangard Kursk vs Kristall MEZ?

On our numbers Avangard Kursk have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 52% and Kristall MEZ 20%.

How many goals will there be in Avangard Kursk vs Kristall MEZ?

We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Avangard Kursk vs Kristall MEZ?

Our predicted score is Avangard Kursk 1–1 Kristall MEZ, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.

When is Avangard Kursk vs Kristall MEZ?

Avangard Kursk vs Kristall MEZ (Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 12 August 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.