Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.45 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
2
Value bet: Baltika to win @ 2.38 – our chance 47% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBaltika to win ✗47% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.43
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.19
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗83% · @1.11
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.13
Fakel vs Baltika: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
12:00 WAT, Saturday 12 September: Fakel v Baltika in the Premier League, played at Fakel Stadium. In the table, Fakel are 16th, in the drop zone, on 6 points after 14 matches; Baltika are 9th (lower half) with 17.
Current form
Fakel, last 5: LDLDL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to FC Rostov, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Baltika, last 5: LDWDD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Lokomotiv, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Baltika, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.3 for Fakel.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Fakel 0.9 xG, Baltika 1.3 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Fakel 28%, draw 25%, Baltika 47%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.19.
Price worth noting: Baltika to win @2.38 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 47%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Fakel 0–1 Baltika. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Fakel28%fair 3.62 · @3.54
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @2.96
Baltika47%fair 2.11 · @2.38
2.14Expected goals
0.88Fakel xG
1.27Baltika xG
51%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–115%
1–113%
0–012%
1–010%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Fakel 0.9 – 1.3 Baltika expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Baltika to win✗
47%
2.11
2.38 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.43 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
2.19 ▲
Draw no bet
Baltika (draw no bet)
63%
1.58
–
Asian handicap
Fakel +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.63
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
83%
1.21
1.11
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Baltika to score first✗
52%
1.92
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Baltika / FT Baltika✗
26%
3.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.13
–
Recent results
Fakel – last 6
LDLDLL
5 Sep
@ FC Rostov
1–3
L
1 Sep
vs FC Krasnodar
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs Zenit
0–1
L
22 Aug
vs FC Orenburg
0–0
D
18 Aug
@ Akhmat
1–2
L
15 Aug
@ CSKA Moscow
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Baltika – last 6
LDWDDL
6 Sep
vs Lokomotiv
0–1
L
2 Sep
vs Krylia Sovetov
0–0
D
30 Aug
@ Rodina Moskva
3–0
W
24 Aug
vs Rubin
1–1
D
20 Aug
vs Dinamo Makhachkala
1–1
D
16 Aug
vs Spartak Moscow
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fakel and Baltika.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Fakel vs Baltika?
On our numbers Fakel have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Baltika 47%.
How many goals will there be in Fakel vs Baltika?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fakel vs Baltika?
Our predicted score is Fakel 0–1 Baltika, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Fakel vs Baltika?
Fakel vs Baltika (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Fakel Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
