Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.21 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.21Odds
2
Value bet: Lokomotiv to win @ 2.54 – our chance 44% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLokomotiv to win ✓44% · @2.54
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.86
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.78
Fakel vs Lokomotiv: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lokomotiv travel to face Fakel on Saturday 10 October in the Premier League, with Fakel Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 13:15 WAT. In the table, Fakel are 16th, in the drop zone, on 6 points after 14 matches; Lokomotiv are 15th (in the drop zone) with 11.
Current form
Fakel, last 5: WLDLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over FC Vitebsk, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Lokomotiv, last 5: WDLWD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over FC Orenburg, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Fakel 1.0 xG, Lokomotiv 1.2 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Fakel 33%, draw 23%, Lokomotiv 44%.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.86.
Price worth noting: Lokomotiv to win @2.54 – the bookmaker implies 39%, our ratings say 44%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.21). Most likely score in line with that pick: Fakel 1–1 Lokomotiv. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Fakel33%fair 3.04 · @2.93
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @3.26
Lokomotiv44%fair 2.27 · @2.54
2.27Expected goals
1.03Fakel xG
1.25Lokomotiv xG
50%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–113%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Fakel 1.0 – 1.2 Lokomotiv expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lokomotiv to win✓
44%
2.27
2.54 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
1.86
Draw no bet
Lokomotiv (draw no bet)✓
57%
1.75
–
Asian handicap
Fakel +1 (Asian handicap)✗
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.34
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.21
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
90%
1.11
1.03
First team to score
Lokomotiv to score first✓
49%
2.03
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lokomotiv / FT Lokomotiv✓
24%
4.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.78
–
Recent results
Fakel – last 6
WLDLDL
3 Oct
vs FC Vitebsk
1–0
W
16 Sep
@ Spartak Moscow
0–1
L
12 Sep
vs Baltika
2–2
D
5 Sep
@ FC Rostov
1–3
L
1 Sep
vs FC Krasnodar
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs Zenit
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Lokomotiv – last 6
WDLWDL
3 Oct
vs FC Orenburg
2–0
W
16 Sep
vs Krylia Sovetov
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Zenit
1–2
L
6 Sep
@ Baltika
1–0
W
1 Sep
@ Akron
0–0
D
29 Aug
vs Dynamo
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fakel and Lokomotiv.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.21.
Who will win Fakel vs Lokomotiv?
On our numbers Fakel have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Lokomotiv 44%.
How many goals will there be in Fakel vs Lokomotiv?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fakel vs Lokomotiv?
Our predicted score is Fakel 1–1 Lokomotiv, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Fakel vs Lokomotiv?
Fakel vs Lokomotiv (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 13:15 (West Africa Time) at Fakel Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
