Value bet: Rodina Moskva to win @ 3.94 – our chance 32% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +26%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFakel to win ✗46% · @2.01
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.86
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗72% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.98
Fakel vs Rodina Moskva: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 24 October the Premier League brings Fakel against Rodina Moskva at Fakel Stadium. Kick-off: 13:00 WAT. In the table, Fakel are 16th, in the drop zone, on 6 points after 14 matches; Rodina Moskva are 13th (lower half) with 12.
Current form
Fakel, last 5: WWLWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Krylia Sovetov, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Rodina Moskva, last 5: DLLLD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with FC Orenburg, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Fakel, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.3 for Rodina Moskva.
Head to head
When they last met (13 Apr 2026) it ended Fakel 1–3 Rodina Moskva.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Fakel 1.5 xG, Rodina Moskva 1.2 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Fakel 46%, draw 22%, Rodina Moskva 32%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.86.
Price worth noting: Rodina Moskva to win @3.94 – the bookmaker implies 25%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (72%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Fakel 1–1 Rodina Moskva. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Fakel46%fair 2.19 · @2.01
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.44
Rodina Moskva32%fair 3.14 · @3.94
2.74Expected goals
1.52Fakel xG
1.22Rodina Moskva xG
52%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
2–07%
1–27%
From our goals model: Fakel 1.5 – 1.2 Rodina Moskva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Fakel vs Rodina Moskva?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Fakel vs Rodina Moskva?
On our numbers Fakel have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Rodina Moskva 32%.
How many goals will there be in Fakel vs Rodina Moskva?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fakel vs Rodina Moskva?
Our predicted score is Fakel 1–1 Rodina Moskva, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Fakel vs Rodina Moskva?
Fakel vs Rodina Moskva (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Fakel Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
