Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Southampton to win @ 1.84 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSouthampton to win ✓63% · @1.84
Double chanceSouthampton or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.38
Southampton vs Swansea: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 8 September the Championship brings Southampton against Swansea. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT. In the table, Southampton are 7th, upper half, on 24 points after 15 matches; Swansea are 6th (upper half) with 26. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Southampton, last 5: DDWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Lincoln, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Swansea, last 5: DWWDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Wrexham, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Swansea, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for Southampton.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Southampton 1.9 xG, Swansea 0.8 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Southampton 63%, draw 22%, Swansea 15%.
Lower-risk option: Southampton or draw (85%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Southampton to win @1.84 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Southampton or draw (85%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.18, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Southampton 1–0 Swansea. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Southampton63%fair 1.59 · @1.84
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.60
Swansea15%fair 6.71 · @4.00
2.65Expected goals
1.87Southampton xG
0.78Swansea xG
58%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Southampton 1.9 – 0.8 Swansea expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Southampton to win✓
63%
1.59
1.84 ▲
Double chance
Southampton or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.67
Draw no bet
Southampton (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Southampton -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.40
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.14
First team to score
Southampton to score first✓
66%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Southampton ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Southampton / FT Southampton✓
40%
2.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.38
–
Recent results
Southampton – last 6
DDWLWL
5 Sep
@ Lincoln
1–1
D
1 Sep
@ Birmingham
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs Millwall
5–1
W
25 Aug
vs West Ham
1–4
L
22 Aug
vs Stoke City
3–1
W
16 Aug
@ Watford
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Swansea – last 6
DWWDWL
5 Sep
vs Wrexham
0–0
D
1 Sep
vs Watford
2–0
W
29 Aug
@ Derby
3–0
W
22 Aug
vs Sheffield Utd
0–0
D
15 Aug
@ Stoke City
2–1
W
8 Aug
vs Birmingham
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Southampton and Swansea.
What is the prediction for Southampton vs Swansea?
Our pick is Southampton or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Southampton vs Swansea?
On our numbers Southampton have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Swansea 15%.
How many goals will there be in Southampton vs Swansea?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Southampton vs Swansea?
Our predicted score is Southampton 1–0 Swansea, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Southampton vs Swansea?
Southampton vs Swansea (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 8 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
