Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.65Odds
Picks by market
ResultQPR to win ✓62% · @1.65
Double chanceQPR or draw ✓87% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.24
QPR vs Derby: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
QPR welcome Derby to Loftus Road for a Championship fixture on Wednesday 14 October (19:45 WAT). In the table, QPR are 8th, upper half, on 24 points after 15 matches; Derby are 23rd (in the drop zone) with 10. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
QPR, last 5: DDDDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with West Ham, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Derby, last 5: DDLLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Wrexham, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give QPR 1.7 xG, Derby 0.6 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – QPR 62%, draw 25%, Derby 13%.
Lower-risk option: QPR or draw (87%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was QPR to win (62%, odds 1.65 – longer than our fair 1.61, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: QPR 1–0 Derby. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
QPR62%fair 1.61 · @1.65
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.80
Derby13%fair 7.63 · @4.80
2.33Expected goals
1.69QPR xG
0.64Derby xG
53%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–014%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: QPR 1.7 – 0.6 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
QPR to win✓
62%
1.61
1.65
Double chance
QPR or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
1.75
Draw no bet
QPR (draw no bet)✓
83%
1.21
–
Asian handicap
QPR -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
QPR to score first✓
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT QPR / FT QPR✓
39%
2.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.24
–
Recent results
QPR – last 6
DDDDLW
9 Oct
@ West Ham
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Preston
2–2
D
12 Sep
@ West Brom
1–1
D
9 Sep
@ Charlton
0–0
D
5 Sep
vs Middlesbrough
0–1
L
2 Sep
vs Cardiff
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Derby – last 6
DDLLLW
10 Oct
vs Wrexham
1–1
D
19 Sep
@ Burnley
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Birmingham
1–2
L
9 Sep
vs West Brom
0–1
L
5 Sep
@ West Ham
0–3
L
1 Sep
@ Portsmouth
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between QPR and Derby.
Our pick is QPR to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win QPR vs Derby?
On our numbers QPR have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Derby 13%.
How many goals will there be in QPR vs Derby?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for QPR vs Derby?
Our predicted score is QPR 1–0 Derby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is QPR vs Derby?
QPR vs Derby (Championship) kicks off on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Loftus Road.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
